Both NANOS and Decima show the same trend today, Conservatives lead increasing. However, the state of the NDP seems to be a point of contention. NANOS points to an NDP uptick, at the expense of the Liberals, while Decima shows a steady decline in NDP support. No where is this more striking than in Quebec, where NANOS gives the NDP 19% on the upswing, while Decima has the NDP vote evaporating to a lowly 7%. Hard to reconcile these two polls.
In the NANOS poll the gap has increased to 6% points, still manageable, but curiously the Conservative vote is stalled, and Harper is at his lowest personal numbers for this pollster. The only caveat, the Conservatives are coming back in Ontario, this fact is also borne out by Decima. Conservatives falling further in Quebec, Atlantic Canada, slightly off in the "west". Overall, the Conservatives seem to have hit bottom, but they aren't really rebounding either.
The NDP strength is coming from Atlantic Canada and Quebec, not much movement in Ontario or the "west". Now, this is the partisan part of the post I suppose, but I'm just not buying a NDP surge in Quebec, primarily because there is really nothing to account for it, more inclined to see a fade, as the race gets down to the crunch. That said, I'm sure NDPers will disagree with this assessment, so cling forceably if you want. I'll take the Decima trendline ;)
Decima gives the Liberals a good lead in Atlantic Canada, they don't show any NDP uptick, if anything they're down. Decima also shows a slight rebound in British Columbia. The Liberal vote is holding, but the Conservatives have come back in Ontario, somewhat in Quebec.
Not the trendlines people want to see overall, no matter which poll you pick. That said, I still see a competitive race, and we will see what the late breakers do, my sense is this race is very fluid, as evidenced by the swings of the past two weeks.