Friday, October 10, 2008

Gap Increases

Both NANOS and Decima show the same trend today, Conservatives lead increasing. However, the state of the NDP seems to be a point of contention. NANOS points to an NDP uptick, at the expense of the Liberals, while Decima shows a steady decline in NDP support. No where is this more striking than in Quebec, where NANOS gives the NDP 19% on the upswing, while Decima has the NDP vote evaporating to a lowly 7%. Hard to reconcile these two polls.

In the NANOS poll the gap has increased to 6% points, still manageable, but curiously the Conservative vote is stalled, and Harper is at his lowest personal numbers for this pollster. The only caveat, the Conservatives are coming back in Ontario, this fact is also borne out by Decima. Conservatives falling further in Quebec, Atlantic Canada, slightly off in the "west". Overall, the Conservatives seem to have hit bottom, but they aren't really rebounding either.

The NDP strength is coming from Atlantic Canada and Quebec, not much movement in Ontario or the "west". Now, this is the partisan part of the post I suppose, but I'm just not buying a NDP surge in Quebec, primarily because there is really nothing to account for it, more inclined to see a fade, as the race gets down to the crunch. That said, I'm sure NDPers will disagree with this assessment, so cling forceably if you want. I'll take the Decima trendline ;)

Decima gives the Liberals a good lead in Atlantic Canada, they don't show any NDP uptick, if anything they're down. Decima also shows a slight rebound in British Columbia. The Liberal vote is holding, but the Conservatives have come back in Ontario, somewhat in Quebec.

Not the trendlines people want to see overall, no matter which poll you pick. That said, I still see a competitive race, and we will see what the late breakers do, my sense is this race is very fluid, as evidenced by the swings of the past two weeks.

13 comments:

Anonymous said...

hmmm...Decima says the NDP is at 7% in Quebec and Nanos says 19% - well there was a poll in La Presse today of 500 Quebecers that had NDP support right splat in the middle at 13% - the NDP took 7% in Quebec last time when they spent no money and made no effort at all. This time one quarter of the national campaign budget is being spent their and they are targeting several ridings. I suspect they will get about 13-15% in Quebec in the end.

Steve V said...

anon

I was thinking of splitting the difference actually. I still suspect it falls off in the end.

Joseph said...

I live in BC, and I still can't get a good gauge of what is happening out here although I am beginning to think that is the nature of BC generally ; ). Afterall, BC was the only province in which the conservatives lost seats during the last election.

But I suspect in the end the numbers will end up being about the same as they were last time, with the Liberals holding most if not all their seats, and possibly picking up Lunn's seat. I would be surprised if there is more than a few seats changed. I am curious about Vancouver Quadra, with the same players as the by-election. There was some strange news story out here today about a truly undecided voter calling the conservative candidate's office, asking about the environment and being told to vote green if she was concerned about the environment. It's not getting a lot of play, but was on local radio. Most people laugh, but to me it sounds like they are encouraging vote-splitting for voters they think they can't "get." But who knows.

I could be wrong, but in the end I suspect the seat tallies out here will end up about the same as they were last time.

I would think conservative seats in Quebec are all at great risk at this point, unless I am missing something.

Does anyone have any sense of expected turn-out? I tend to think conservatives are counting on lower turn-out. That is why I think he wanted Oct 14 just after the holiday - a belief that lower turn-out will help them.

I hope their assessment is wrong, but it is hard to get a sense of things. Has anyone heard anything about pollsters measuring on that as the election comes to a close?

Steve V said...

Advance turnout has been below average, but the people at EC said it's not indicative, last time possible poor weather was a factor in early turnout.

Gayle said...

I am not surprised by this at all.

People are still afraid of the Green Shift, so as soon as it sounded like Dion might win this thing support decreased. It is smart for Harper to hammer at that.

In my opinion, Dion should have said he might delay the implementation of the Green Shift if economists advised it. We all know they probably would not have advised delaying, but the fact Dion refused to consider it has been played as not being flexible enough during uncertain economic times.

PS The NDP are very much at play here in Edmonton Strathcona. Jaffer is even running attack ads implying the NDP support drugs in school! Desperate or what?

Greg said...

That said, I'm sure NDPers will disagree with this assessment, so cling forceably if you want. I'll take the Decima trendline ;)

I am hoping Nanos is right (and face it he does have the best record), but only because it will make the splits more interesting.

Möbius said...

If a CPC majority seems unlikely, more people will vote their conscience.

The NDP will steal votes from other parties, as the party most likely to influence a minority. At least they vote against the CPC on principle.

The Green vote, which May is attempting to send to the LPC will evaporate, if the CPC drops below majority status. The Greens need the money, so why not vote for them instead.

With May in charge, I'd vote Liberal before I voted Green again. They're further left than Mr. Dion.

Joseph said...

Regarding my earlier comment on BC, the "BC Liberal Team" (which has been outstanding btw . . . perhaps they can lead the national daily press efforts in future elections ; ) has the following release about the conservative's "encouraged vote split" in BC ridings:

http://www.teambc.ca/2008/10/10/freefalling-conservatives-panucking-in-british-columbia/

I agree with Gayle. Although I support the green shift, I agree it would be wise to have said all options would be discussed during the 30 day review of discussions on managing the economy in the current climate, including delaying green shift tax implementation if warranted due to the crisis.

Ultimately, I can't imagine that would have been a major factor - there are other more directly critical steps that need to be taken, and the reality is the shift would inject money into people's pockets, particularly as fuel prices have been plummeting due to the global slowdown.

JimmE said...

Just returned from watching M. Dion give his stump speech at our campaign office. He's upbeat, & in good form & talks about the choice is a Liberal or a Harper Government. I've seen M. Dion several times over the past two years, & have often been impressed with him, but wow! he's amazingly good right now, the whole not a leader thing is GONE! He looks and sounds like a Prime Minister.
His Best Line: "Last election Mr Layton asked Liberal supporters to lend the NDP their vote. This election we want those votes back - with interest!"
Best line from the crowd while we waited:
1st Man - "Hey is that Mike Duffy?"
2nd Man - " Nah, he's probably out making some widows cry!"

Constant Vigilance said...

The increased gap is concerning but I think that people are truly worried about things. A lot of the support for all of the parties is soft and may move over the next few days.

I remain hopeful that Steve V is right and the family discussions sway enough people away from the blue abyss and over to the red harbour.

Strained metaphor perhaps but I am off for the weekend. I will be talking to family but not about politics. They all vote Conservative by rote. I will see how much company I have in Calgary Southwest on Tuesday.

seaninsaskatchewan said...

I find the wild swings in Atlantic Canada amusing, the Nano's graph on their daily release is like a yo-yo for all 3 major parties.

19% seems high, but 7 seems low. I would also go for somewhere inbetween. If Nanos uses cellphones maybe he is catching more urbanite Quebeckers than the other polls?

Anonymous said...

Ipsos Reid's BC office just released the results of a reasonale sample sized poll (452) today with these reults:

CPC - 39% [Up 2% from 2006]
NDP - 25% [Down 4% from 2006]
L - 24% [Down 4% from 2006]
G - 11% [Up 6% from 2006]

The spread between the NDP and the Liberals is the same as in 2006. The Liberals are in 2nd place in Metro Vancouver and their vote is typically concentrated around the City of Vancouver. The Victoria area is also an area of Liberal strength.

That's good news in terms of holds:

Vancouver Centre
Vancouver Quadra
Vancouver South
Vancouver Kingsway (retake)
Richmond
North Vancouver
Esquimalt

Possible Pick-ups:

Burnaby Douglas
Saanich Gulf Islands

Possible Losses:

West Vancouver
Newton North Delta

Miles Lunn said...

Not the greatest, but I am not totally surprised. 33-36% is in many ways still on the low side for the Tories and 31-32% in Ontario is what John Tory got last provincial election and Harper got in 2004, so hardly good numbers. I think as others have said, the Liberals are only going to win if they can pick up some NDP and Green votes. The Tories are likely to hold what they have now. Lets remember, the Tories have in the past gotten as high as 35% and still lost. Though we will see what happens over the weekend. The only thing that seems interesting is both Harper and Dion are visiting mostly close ridings from last time around. If Dion was visiting only Tory held ridings I would be more pleased with what is happening and likewise if Harper was only visiting Liberal ridings, I would be worried. The fact they are visiting all the narrowly held ones tells me things are not much different than last time around.