Sunday, October 05, 2008

More Bad Trendlines

This poll has been somewhat goofy from the onset, but when every measure is DOWN for the Conservatives, pretty much EVERYWHERE, we'll put this one in the "bad news Harpo" binder. The good ship majority has set sail, and Dion receives more validation:
The Conservatives are losing steam in key swing ridings in Ontario, B.C. and Quebec, a development that could put a majority government out of arm's reach for Stephen Harper.

Behind the Liberals in Quebec swing ridings:
Bloc Quebecois: 40 per cent (-2)
Liberal: 22 per cent (+3)
Conservative: 21 per cent (-1)
NDP: 13 per cent (+1)
Green Party: 4 per cent (same)

"The Liberals could stand to gain from Dion's performance in the next few days, even if they didn't get it right off the bat," Donolo said.

In Quebec's swing ridings, 33 per cent of those polled thought Dion won the debate, compared to 13 per cent for Harper and 18 per cent for Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe.

The new numbers are down five per cent from the Tories' highest mark of 45 per cent in those same ridings in late September. The Conservatives' losses appear to be trending towards the Liberals, who gained a few points in the latest survey: (brackets show percentage-point change from Sept. 30-Oct. 2 poll)

Conservative: 40 per cent (-2)
Liberals: 28 per cent (+3)
NDP: 21 per cent (-1)
Bloc Quebecois: n/a
Green Party: 12 per cent (+2)

British Columbia:
Conservative: 38 per cent (-2)
Liberal: 27 per cent (same)
NDP: 22 per cent (-1)
Bloc: n/a
Green Party: 13 per cent (+3)
The Conservatives had as much as 46 per cent support in September polling in B.C. battlegrounds.

The best part, another headline of shrinking Conservative fortunes, just as we enter the final sprint. Harper shouldn't have taken today off, Dion looked very PMish on the helicopter over rugged Churchill, according to all the pretty frames on the news anyways :) Perfect.

Still a steep climb, but every number is negative for the Conservatives, and another poll showing some movement in Ontario (Decima too now puts us ahead) for the Liberals. I sense a new narrative to start the week, and this angle won't help either.


Constant Vigilance said...

Still a steep climb perhaps but I am an optimist. The more Canadians see a chance that Harper can be banished to Think Tank Heaven, the more they will shift to the Liberals.

Don't forget that a lot of the Conservative Sask, Ont. and other ridings were won by only a couple of hundred votes.

Have faith in the wisdom of Ordinary Canadians.

Beijing York said...

When did Harper's Conservatives overtake Ontario by such a wide margin? (I must have blinked because it seemed to me that the Liberals were ahead at the beginning of the election.) And are there independents that are making the point changes not add up?

As long as Harper is losing ground, that's all I care about.

Steve V said...

It's the swing ridings, not the whole province. What it means, one less poll for Duffy to cling onto tomorrow, not to mention another segment of Donolo running all day, saying the Cons are shrinking everywhere, some fair comments on Dion. Can't hurt, more lines for the theme.

JimmE said...

Well, I just keep knocking on doors in my 905 riding. Today I was in a "tory poll" (it was more of a 3-way split 2 years ago). Walking through the poll one can almost point to the streets that voted Tory, Grit, & Dipper. The Tories still love them the STEVE, but; I got two signs from folks who usually vote NDP & one Dipper where they are voting Grit & he removed his Dipper sign! (Could not get a sign though!) Don't count you chickens, but like I said before, this is going to be very interesting! (Just so you know, I keep hammering the fact that my former MP lost by about 2,000 votes, less than 10 votes a poll, & as this thing goes on, people warm to that sentiment.)

Anonymous said...

According to the latest Ekos poll of 2,500 people all done this weekend - it is still Tories 35%, Liberals 25%, NDP 19%, BQ and Greens 10% each.

They have the NDP and Tories dead even in BC at 32% each and Ontario is now C 36/L 32/NDP 19

Quebec of course is a total blow out for the BQ.

The Ekos poll has a really big sample size and their numbers have been remarkably consistent throughout the campaign at the national level.

These numbers would leave the Tories far short of a majority.

lept said...

What continues to amaze me is how the federal liberals are totally absent here in deepest darkest Bloc territory - even although we a swarming with the breed on every other level (municipal and 'provincial' politics are totally Liberal Red):
failure on the part of the leader in his own territory or not, it seems absurd that we have a lame candidate running around giving out little cards like your average corner huckster hiding his goods under his coat (I kid you not).
No support from any of the other levels.

Steve V said...

On other tidbit from this poll:

And they showed a preference for Mr. Dion over Mr. Harper on issues of honesty, likeability and ability to deal with the U.S. financial crisis.

Dion better to deal with the crisis? That's an encouraging nod.


I can understand during the election, but I don't get no engagement for the past two years.

Steve V said...

First question for Harper this morning- "why are you fading in the polls?"

Harper responds that he never reads polls.

Second question- "Scotiabank says we are heading into a recession, how are you going to respond?"