There does appear to be some conflicting national polling, but that isn't the case in Quebec, where everyone shows the Conservatives in the tank, with the prospects for a majority fading badly. This fact is borne out in both the NANOS and Decima polls today, plus evidence from others in the last few days. Given the steep decline, and a mini-Liberal resurgence, I think it safe to say the hopes for the breakthrough are effectively over. There might be some slight rebound for the Conservatives, but it's hard to see any return to the early days threat, too much damage has been done.
I believe the above is realistic, which leads me to the rest of the country. Nanos has the gap at 7% today (up 2% from yesterday), which should surprise no one. The NPD fortunes are up slightly in both the Nanos and Decima offerings, reflecting Layton's strong performance. Decima also shows the Greens up to 13% nationally, but interestingly Nanos shows them down to 8%, some erosion in most parts of the country. Common sense leans towards the Decima trends, May performed well.
What I find encouraging, although the national numbers are still distant, and the Liberals are in serious trouble in the west, supported by everyone, Ontario is showing signs of a shift. Decima now has a tie in Ontario, both at 31%, the NDP showing an uptick. Decima hasn't shown a tie for quite some time, and this finding mirrors what Nanos reports. With Quebec cementing, I still see hope, because I sense a very fluid race in this province, there is a way to bring people back to the Liberal fold. No pollster disputes a very important fact, it is the Liberals that have the room for growth, and some of the findings show a real softness in the Green and NDP voters. It boils down to capitalization, and presenting a compelling reason to buy into the Liberal vision. Couple that with a historic preference for late deciders moving Liberal, and it's not a pipe dream.
Atlantic Canada appears to be firming up for the Liberals, if Nanos is correct. Although Atlantic Canada numbers have a high MOE, he essentially shows the Liberals holding strong at over 40% for three straight nights. The chief problem, which is killing the Liberal national numbers, the party are nowhere in the "west" and this is a real factor. Anything is possible, but we don't appear to be getting any traction in British Columbia, and that is key if we have a chance.
A couple interesting tidbits. Nanos has Dion coming back to earth a bit today, as the English debate is factored in (you will note I expected a "pull back" after yesterday's extraordinary numbers). However, the honeymoon continues in Quebec, where Dion is now tied for FIRST on the best PM score, the party up another 2% in the polls. It is entirely possible that the Liberals could pickup a couple seats in Quebec, a thought almost laughable a week ago.