Friday, October 03, 2008

Debate Bounce?

Some pretty striking numbers across the board from NANOS today, not the least of which Dion's numbers. EKOS and Decima still show a wide gap, although we really won't see the full debate fallout until Sunday. One tidbit from Decima, the NDP now fourth in Ontario, the Greens surging.

I'm focusing on NANOS today, particularly because they have detailed leadership numbers. I've always believed that the Liberals can't move until Dion starts getting his numbers up. What we see today is a clear co-relation between Dion's personal standing and the Liberal fortunes.

First, a dramatic change in the horse race numbers, with an 11% lead narrowing decisively to a mere 5%. Liberals up 4%, Conservatives down 2%, NDP down 1%, Greens unchanged- Cons 35%, Libs 30%, NDP 18%, Greens 10%. Last night's polling must have shown a massive change, that's a big change for a tracking poll, and it speaks to just how impressive Dion was with voters in the French debate.

As you scan down the NANOS pdf, I was really looking for the leadership scores. Let me just say, whoa! Dion's overall score up an incredible 130% from yesterday, a mere 8 points behind Harper (64 points yesterday), not to mention well ahead of Layton, who was double Dion in the previous sample. These numbers tend to bounce around quite a bit, so I'm not sure I'm entirely sold on the methodology, but when you see something this extreme, it's real. Even a pullback tomorrow, it's still quite striking. Dion statistically tied with Harper on competence and vision is uncharted territory.

On the best PM scoring, for the first time I can remember, Dion is ahead of Layton. While still behind, Dion is now the highest we've seen, the trend line over the past week a good one.

NANOS now puts the Liberals second in Quebec, up a full 7% to 24% (Cons 20%). Nobody sees a Liberal breakthrough, but Dion has clearly shored up support and I'm sure some Montreal MP's are quite happy today. NANOS also shows the Liberals dominating in Atlantic Canada, back to even in Ontario. The west remains a chief concern for the Liberals.

Now, we see how the English debate factors in, and if other pollsters show some movement. That aside, clearly Dion has risen in stature, while some of this dramatic rise may wane, it's still a very positive sign.

13 comments:

liberazzi said...

Grammar mistake...

Don't know if these numbers are going to hold but...Holy Shit! That's awesome! Plus, Dion being almost tied with Harper, that's a great way to end the week. If these numbers hold throughout the weekend then we have ourselves a horserace! Sweet!

liberazzi said...

At this point we are just trying to hold our own and possibly squeek out a minority. I do not see much more a breakthrough, but at least it is not all doom and gloom anymore.

Steve V said...

I think Harper's Quebec dream is OVER. And, even Ipsos Wright admitted today that Ontario could easily switch back to the Libs- I expect some late breakers to our side.

Dame said...

Decency and hard work and openess and REAL CARE comes through finally with Dion. His image is changing and people noticing it..
I think with the whole economic thunder as it happens .. the picture is way different now.

these are excellent numbers!!!!

Anonymous said...

I find it hard to believe that the Green's (love em', they're my second choice) support will hold at 10%, and I would guess that there is some soft NDP support that could break away too. It is a fair question to ask whether this soft support could break for the Liberals. I think it is entirely possible.

The other night I was watching that X-challenge show on the CBC where they packed the audience in proportion to the recent polls, and then had them watch a debate on the economy between prominent candidates for each party at which point they took a mock vote. It should be noted that it was an Ontario audience but still ... in the end, while I was on the edge of my seat, the results came in.

First they announced that the Green's only got 3% (iirc) and I said to my partner that that was a good sign, next the NDP also dropped in support and I was getting more excited realizing that the progressive vote was shoring up behind the Liberals. Finally the announced that the winner received 52% of the vote (at which point I was ready to burst but still worried that maybe ... maybe ... it was the Conservatives who were going to win), and then it was proclaimed that the Liberals in fact won the night.

I was so happy I was giving high fives. So, what I am getting at is that there is a lot of upside yet for the Liberals ... I hope the country's progressive realize this and in the end give their votes to the Libs so that we can once and for all get rid of this Conservative Party of Canada.

Steve V said...

anon

And, don't forget that audience was selected based on the current polling, so there were more Cons supporters at the beginning. Plus, that was FLAHERTY, and it was a debate about the economy.

kheimbuch said...

Dion did as well as he could in my opinion. I bet that Layton's tasteless attacks on Harper made a lot of people feel almost sympathetic to Harper -- one possible reason for the people polled who proclaimed Harper won the English language debate.

To me, May and Dion did the best in terms of both style and substance. Elizabeth May likely ensured that at least a few Greens will be in Parliament.

Steve V said...

k

That poll was a joke. It was completed at the midway point of the debate, whereas the Quebec one was done for the entire debate. WTF is that? Dion was better in the second half, he just was, so a big WHATEVER to that one :)

Anonymous said...

according to that shithead Bruce or whatever at decima we are down to 22....what a bunch of scabs those conservative liars are at decima....signed gramps

Miles Lunn said...

Probably the best news of all this is it will keep the campaigners going and prevent some from giving up. As with any election getting each and every vote out is extremely important. I do though agree we need to see the full results of the English language debate. The results in Quebec are definitely encouraging, Atlantic Canada I am reluctant to say much on due to high margin of error and it seems all polls show the Tories down in the 20s for a while and then back out in front in the 30s. In fact Decima I think was showing what Nanos is showing today last week while today showing what Nanos was showing a week ago. And the Ontario numbers are at least somewhat better than in the past, still we need a good lead there if we want to win the election. Lets remember we were 5 points ahead in Ontario last time around. Also, I would be interested in seeing the regional breakdowns within Ontario. If the Tories are piling up huge majorities in the rural ridings, then this is a good thing, but if we are piling up huge majorities in the 416 then it is a bad thing.

Still, the one thing all polls do seem to confirm is Harper will not win a majority. Even if he makes gains in Ontario and British Columbia, there are not enough winneable seats in those provinces alone to reach majority territory. Without gains in Quebec, he cannot get a majority and I think it is safe to say 15 seats is probably the most optimistic possibility for the Tories, while the worst one would show them losing half their seats in Quebec. The four seats south of Quebec City in the Appalaches-Chaudiere are the only ones they really have a lock on as for whatever reason that area seems far more conservative than anywhere else in the province.

Blues Clair said...

Allen Gregg mentioned on the At Issue panel last night that he expeceted the numbers to tighten. We will see... Two good debate performances by Dion.

Steve V said...

blues

Just to add, Bricker from Ipsos also said he was cautious, because he sensed Ontario could tip back, we are only talking small percentages and they have pivoted back and forth for months.

Anonymous said...

Ipsos just released a new national poll:

Cons - 37%
Libs - 23%
NDP - 19%
Greens - 10%
BQ - 10%

The Tories are getting shellacked in Quebec.