Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Ontario Polls

Two new Ontario polls released, one shows the Liberals with a big lead, the other a close race. The Ipsos poll has the Liberals at 40%, PC's at 37%, NDP 16% Greens 6% (no link, television), which is the same as last week's offering. Decima however, shows a wide gap, with McGuinty enjoying the leadership nod, for the first time I can remember:
The five-day survey that wrapped up Monday found the Liberals at 41 per cent support, the Conservatives at 32 per cent, the New Democrats 14 per cent and the Greens 12 per cent.

When it comes to who would make the best premier, 27 per cent of respondents chose McGuinty, compared with 23 per cent for Tory. Ten per cent chose NDP Leader Howard Hampton.

Partisanship aside, I'm more inclined to have confidence in the Decima Poll, simply because the Ipsos-Reid polling has never shown any negative consequence for Tory's faith-based school argument, even when the internals show decided disagreement. In my mind, it justs seems intuitive that the rocky start should have been reflected in the Ipsos poll. If you take the average of the two polls, it's Liberals 41%, PC's 35%, NDP 15%, Greens 9%.

McGuinty was complaining about negative campaigning today, and while I wouldn't recommend a leader whining, he does have a point. Tory has bombarded the airwaves, and I've heard a miriad of ads, but I haven't really learned much on the policy front, it's just bash, bash and more bash. As a matter of fact, the sheer volume of the vitrol is more a turnoff than a testament to why John Tory should be leader. If "leadership matters", an idea or two would be nice, as opposed to Dalton McGuinty, human pinata.


Idealistic Pragmatist said...

It's kind of fascinating how much those numbers look like the federal numbers...if the Greens weren't doing as well, that is.

Steve V said...

I'm expecting a pretty nasty debate tomorrow.

Anonymous said...

Im usually disinclined to take at face value polls where the green party is above 10 percent. Time will tell if I'm right or wrong though.

Steve V said...


You must hate most polls then ;)

900ft Jesus said...

another display of Tory's astonishing campaign skills: