The federal Conservatives' lead over the Liberals has widened to four points, but the level of their support remains shy of what's needed to put them in majority government territory, a new national poll says.
The poll, conducted Wednesday and Thursday by Ipsos-Reid for CanWest News Service and Global National, said the Conservative support held at 36 per cent for the second consecutive week of polling.
Support for the Liberal party stood at 32 per cent, down two points from its showing in an Ipsos-Reid poll conducted the previous week.
The New Democratic Party nudged up two points to 15 per cent. The Bloc Quebecois dropped a point to eight per cent and the Green Party held
In Quebec, some improvement:
The party climbed four points to 29 per cent, probably getting a bounce from their leading provincial counterparts in the early stages of the election, Bricker said.
The Bloc dropped four points to 34 per cent, and Stephen Harper's Conservatives dropped three points to 18 per cent.
Ontario:
In Ontario, the Tories and Grits were in a close race.
The Liberals had 39 per cent, down two points from the last survey, while the Tories had 36 per cent, also down two points.
The NDP support was up two points to 15 per cent.
This polls supports the theory that the Angus-Reid online poll is a outlier. What I take from this poll, confirmation of some Liberal erosion. The changing numbers seem more a function of the Liberals fading, than it does the Tories "surging".
The intriguing part of this poll, is it mirrors the earlier Decima poll findings for Quebec. The Liberals are up slightly, while the Tories are down, which gives me some comfort in saying the attack ads failed. I don't think you can co-relate the federal Liberal fortunes with the Quebec election, it makes more sense to see it as a benefit for Harper at this stage. The good news for federalists, another poll that shows the Bloc at a real low point, that we haven't seen for quite some time.
12 comments:
As I said yesterday, for the ordinary person who does not live and breath politics what are they to believe with all of these polls showing different results?
Anyway, all of the movement by the parties is within the margin of error from the last poll Ipsos did so this poll is virtually meaningless.
Yes it is fair to say that the Liberals have faded but not to the extent that some believe. As well, the explanation for that fade is probably better explained by the incumbant advantage reasserting itself after the Liberal convention bump than anything the parties have done in the last few weeks.
Really Steve take a look at the last few weeks. Has anything happened in politics that would really spark the imagination or interest of people outside of the political chattering class?
"Really Steve take a look at the last few weeks. Has anything happened in politics that would really spark the imagination or interest of people outside of the political chattering class?"
The ads in Quebec may be a talking point within the province. There hasn't been anything earth shattering, although you would be hard pressed to find any positive coverage of Dion. I think it fair to say there is some slippage.
I think we have more polling companies up here then we do parties.
This result makes me even more dubious, as you said Steve, not only of the Angus-Reid poll being an outlier, but it cements my argument that online polls need to be taken with a grain of salt.
Is there any polling company left to report? I guess SES is the one we all want to see.. and I guess I can think of Ekos who hasn't released one in awhile.
Steve, you mentioned an SES poll coming out tomorrow didn't you? I didn't see Weston refer to it, but I think we are going to see the Con's up in Quebec.
I don't really understand why so many polls are surfacing now and personally, I'd like to see polls asking deeper policy questions.
SES should be interesting.
For what it is worth, I think all these polls are as meaningless as the ones taken just after Dion was elected leader.
People were polled Thursday and Friday. Most people, if they were paying attention at all, saw there was some debate about terrorism, and some accusation that the liberals were soft on terror, so that may have led them to reject the liberals.
Personally, if anything can be taken from this particular snapshot it is that the liberals' decision to allow the provisions to die, and the "dissention in the ranks" did not affect voters as much as the conservatives had hoped.
granny says...greg weston on cbc that ses was being done tomorrow...whatever that means..and that they would be surprised how well the cons were getting ahead in quebec...nick nanos is nowworking for the SUN...I hope this does not mean another Con poll.
This bounce for the Cons is as a result of the attack ads portraying Dion as a weak leader, combined with the repositioning on environment policy etc by Harper. Liberals should not take any comfort from this, except that the bounce is rather small and that in Quebec, where Dion is known to be tough (he took on the separatists after all), the bounce is nonexistent and in fact, the Libs are up there. Quebeckers know from experience that Dion is not a weak man, however, as G&M Jeff Simpson says, don't expect the Quebec media to SAY that, but it is what Quebeckers themselves are thinking.
If there had been no attack ads and if Harper had maintained his anti-environment stance, I believe the Dion Libs would still be up from the convention although, perhaps the honeymoon would be showing to have faded a bit.
My point is, any Liberal trying to portray these numbers as meaningless is not getting the message. The idea of Dion as weak is going to fly where he is not well known. We can write this off as Dion being underestimated once again, but I feel that is a luxury we can't afford. The antidote is to bring Dion face to face with ALL of Canada so they can see the tenacity that Quebec is familiar with, show up the attacks as false, which they are, and retake the environment by branding Harper as the liar he is. Focus in on his dishonesty. That is where he is weak and there is plenty of evidence to prove it.
The Liberals have renewed themselves and put the past in the past where it belongs, however, I feel we have to remind ourselves how to FIGHT to win. Perhaps those "muscles" are flabby seeing as how we haven't had to really claw our way to the PMO's office for a decade and a half. The Harpercrits are not going to lie down and let us beat them. Realize that. My 2 cents.
-Blackstar
Scott posted on an SES poll that showed increased comfort with the Conservatives in Quebec, I'm not sure if that is what Weston is talking about or not.
gayle
Point taken.
blackstar
I agree that we shouldn't interpret this results as "meaningless" and/or temporary. It's just a snapshot, but it's also not the prettiest of pictures.
knb:
The fact Mr. Weston decided to drop a hint about changes in Quebec and not the country at large makes me think that SES did a poll for the Sun Group of newspapers which will be in line with today's poll. In short, the gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals will be small and both will be in minority territory.
However, my guess is the Conservatives will have jumped in Quebec somewhat. Say a ten point differential, which considering the margin of error for most regional breakdowns of polls tend to be between 5-10 points it will not be as significant as they will make it out to be.
It is a common media practice to spin a poll according to their own needs and premises. That is why they focused on the "internals" of the last Strategic Council poll. After all, breathlessly talking about a five point difference does not make sense but a 20 point difference between Mr. Harper and Mr Dion, wow. Never mind that Mr. Martin held similar advantages over Mr. Harper just 6 weeks before the 2006 election. That just takes away from the hype.
That is the reason why I ignore polls except out of professional curiosity. It is also the reason why I believe the only difference between the MSM and such news outlets as the National Inquirer is the National Inquirer has the decency and honesty not to take itself too seriously.
ottlib:It is also the reason why I believe the only difference between the MSM and such news outlets as the National Inquirer is the National Inquirer has the decency and honesty not to take itself too seriously.
LOL, well said!
Has anyone read Chantal Hebert's new book?
I thought they stopped selling her book because she wanted to add a chapter about how she does not dislike Stephane Dion.
I created a kind of contest on my blog, asking people to speak to why they would be uncomfortable with a Conservative Majority. So far, I've only had Conservatives reply. Check it out yourself.
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