The Conservative party holds a 14-point lead in Canada, according to a poll by Angus Reid Strategies. 40 per cent of decided voters would support the Tories in the next election to the House of Commons.
The Liberal party is second with 26 per cent, followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 15 per cent, the Bloc Québécois with 10 per cent, and the Green party with eight per cent.
The poll gives the Tories a big lead in British Columbia and Ontario, with Quebec split down the middle. I suppose you can fluff off these polls, but in mind, there is no question we have a trend. This poll is the first I can remember that puts Harper in majority terrority, and it should give everyone pause.
The calendar is the Conservative's friend, hard to see a scenario where they are hurt by a feel-good budget. The latest polls certainly make a spring election more likely, Harper may orchestrate his own demise after the budget.
As an aside, my earlier post on the Quebec ads having no effect may have been pre-mature. Those numbers in Quebec are the highest I have seen for the Conservatives in some time. Take this poll in isolation, everything comes up roses for Harper, and the Liberals are in serious trouble. I just hope this is bottom.