A new poll suggests the federal Conservatives have regained support among women and city-dwellers, crucial demographic groups that are key to any hope of a Tory majority.
The Decima survey, provided to The Canadian Press, suggests the trend is the reason for the Conservatives' six percentage point lead nationally over the Liberals – 35 to 29.
There is one huge silver lining for the Liberals though – they are way ahead of the Tories in Quebec, in a virtual tie with the Bloc Quebecois.
The poll, conducted last weekend, placed the NDP at 15 per cent, the Green party at 11, and the Bloc Quebecois at seven.
The most obvious one is that the Tory momentum may be levelling off. The governing party had been on a surge since January and had rocketed to a nine-point lead in a Decima survey last week.
The new numbers show the Tories with a smaller lead and leaves them well shy of the support level they would need for a majority government.
The second Liberal bright spot is Quebec. Not since the sponsorship scandal exploded three years ago has the Liberal party seen such a promising score in the seat-rich province.
The Liberals lagged just two percentage points – a statistical dead heat – behind the Bloc Quebecois. The long-dominant Bloc was at 31 per cent in the province, while the Liberals were at 29 and the Tories were well back at 17.
In Ontario, the Tories held on to their advantage, leading the Liberals 37 per cent to 32 per cent. The NDP and Green party were tied at 14 per cent.
There were few bright spots for the NDP.
Last week's Decima numbers had the Conservatives at 36%, the Liberals at 27%- translation the bleeding has stopped. The good news, the Liberals are up a full 6% in Quebec, nipping at the BQ heels. It would appear lying ads have failed, and the election is actually benefiting the Liberals, much to Harper's dismay.
The Ontario numbers are bad news, and the pattern is consistent. Decima seems to give the Greens high percentages, and it is quite relevant that they tie the NDP in Ontario. This condition should give Liberals some comfort, as voters oscillate on the center-left, come election time there should be some leakage back to the Liberals.
Conclusion, Liberals have already hit bottom.