The weekend Decima Research survey put Tory support at 36 per cent nationally, back up to where the minority government was just over a year ago when it won power. The Liberals polled 27 per cent, down from the 30 per cent they earned in the last election...
The Green party jumped to 12 per cent, putting it in a virtual dead heat with the NDP, which polled 13 per cent.
The poll suggests Liberals lost their long-time edge in Ontario, slipping to 32 per cent while the Tories surged to 40 per cent.
And in Quebec, Decima found Bloc Quebecois support was down to 35 per cent, with the Liberals at 23 per cent and the Tories at 15.
The Ontario numbers are concerning, no question. Those Quebec numbers should dampen the Ontario gains, especially when this poll was conducted after Harper's big announcement with Charest.
What is interesting, Liberal support seems to be moving to the Green Party, which suggests an apprehension to the Tories. This isn't the first poll to show this vacilation, and it provides more evidence that the Tories have a minority ceiling. Some conventional wisdom argues that the Green "surge" is just a blip, once the real vote occurs, we will see the typical erosion. I don't think people should be so flippant, the Greens look impressive and May is sure to shine in a campaign. The NDP should be quite concerned, as it appears voters are by-passing them as an alternative to the Liberals.
UPDATE
I should provide the Feb 8 Decima poll for context:
The Decima survey, provided to The Canadian Press, gives the Liberals a one percentage point lead nationally -- 33 per cent to 32 per cent -- which is within the 3.1 percentage point margin of error.
The survey puts the NDP at 15 per cent, the Bloc Quebecois at nine, and the Green party at eight.
The poll suggests the Liberal lead in Ontario has shrunk to four percentage points, compared with an 18-point gap at the start of the month.
The Bloc Quebecois held a huge lead in Quebec at 42 per cent, compared with 21 per cent for the Liberals and 17 per cent for the Tories.
26 comments:
I might be guilty of some spin above, the real headline that the media will focus on is Dion's leadership. Unfortunately these results will just fuel the second-guessing. Bumpy.
Actually Steve the poll you should be quoting as comparison is the last Decima poll.
The results for that one were 33% for the Conservatives and 30% for the Liberals.
It is interesting that the estimates seemed to increase and decrease by just under the margin of error, which is 3.1%.
The same can be said of the poll you quote and the last Decima poll.
There does seem to be some erosion of support for the Liberals and gain for the Conservatives but each time it is within the margin of error so you really cannot say how much of each is the result of true change or the result of survey error.
Although there is absolutely no way to prove this my gut tells me that the Conservatives and the Liberals are much closer than this poll indicates.
I still suggest that Harper's smearing of Bains and the Liberals in general will reflect on him negatively in the next round of polls. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.. but Canadians didn't like the child porn comment in 2004 that Harper used (or his angry attitude) and initial polling suggested Canadians disapproved of his antics.. so lets see what the next round of polls brings.
Regardless.. the election is a ways away yet, I predict.. and remember even before last years election, Martin was in a similar polling position to Harper.. and we know what happened. So, its not time to throw in the towel just yet.
scott
I agree, my gut tells me Harper's behavior should cost him.
ottlib
You're right, I kind of goofed on the point of reference. This is really the relevant part:
"Three-week rolling averages of Decima's weekly data dampen the dramatic shift of fortunes, but nonetheless illustrate the point. Combining three separate surveys going back to Feb. 8, Tory support is 33 per cent, the Liberals have 30, the NDP 14 and the Greens 11.
In Ontario, the three February surveys average out to marginal 37-35 lead for the Liberals over the Conservatives, with the NDP at 16 per cent and the Greens at 11.
And in Quebec, the rolling averages put Bloc support at 38 per cent, followed by the Liberals at 23, the Tories at 16, the Greens at 10 and seven per cent for the NDP.
"They're not numbers that necessarily suggest a (Conservative) victory in an election is a slam dunk, let alone a majority victory," said Anderson"
I believe that some of the Green support will erode in the next election as many Canadians place their actual platform under greater scrutiny, rather than just latching on to the "Green" name. However, they will do significantly better than in the last election, and I'll be surprised if they don't win their first seats. I also believe that the Greens are taking support from all parties, including the Conservatives - not just from the Liberals.
On average, Conservative support goes up 4-5% between the start of an election and the actual election day. The obvious exception being Kim Campbell's multdown in 1993. Overall, Conservative support has increased over the course of the campaign in all but 2 elections between 1963 and 2006. I have every reason to believe that this trend will continue.
The NDP is hit or miss, but I don't see their support going much lower than it is right now.
The same applies to the Liberals. 25% of the population would vote Liberal no matter what.
This should all make for an interesting election - in 2008. :)
Steve:
I think what we are seeing is the final death throes of the convention bump and the natural advantage the incumbent usually gets in between elections reasserting itself.
The perception is not good for the Liberals but the numbers should stabilize back to what they were in November, which was Conservatives between 32 and 36 and the Liberals between 30 and 34.
I also agree that Mr. Harper's actions probably cost him some of the warm fuzzy that was reported last week and it will eventually be reflected in the polls.
"I believe that some of the Green support will erode in the next election as many Canadians place their actual platform under greater scrutiny, rather than just latching on to the "Green" name"
I might agree with that premise, except for one thing, Elizabeth May. She will be a strong campaigner, she will be in the debates and I think Canadians will see her as a breath of fresh air. Her rhetoric has the common touch, and she sounds intelligent in a way people can relate.
Toronto Tory:
The trend you describe is for when the Conservatives or their earlier incarnations were in opposition.
With few exceptions support for the governing party erodes during an election and grows for the opposition.
I cannot think of a single instance in the last 30 years where the governing party managed to grow its support during an election.
Mr. Trudeau, Mr. Chretien, Mr. Martin, Mr. Mulroney, Mr. Harris, and others all went through it in their second (and third) elections.
They all started the election higher in the polls than the final election day count.
Mr. Charest is destined to go through it this month and I will lay good money on Mr. McGuinty going through the same thing in the fall.
So if Mr. Harper wants to increase his chances of winning the next election let alone gaining a majority he had better be in the low 40s when the writ is dropped. Any lower and he can probably kiss the majority goodbye and maybe even his government.
Steve:
In another thread on your blog I state some folks need to get a life yet here I am taking over your blog tonight.
Oh well, CSI is a repeat tonight and there is just too much material in this thread to ignore.
Anyway, with regard to Ms. May. You are correct about her but you are forgetting the she will not have the money to get her message out. She will be depending on the MSM to do so because the Greens have a very limited campaign budget but she will not be able to hold the campaign events that attract the MSM. A Catch-22 really.
Unfortunately for the Greens, the MSM will focus most of their energy on the two front runners with some time thrown to Mr. Layton.
I suspect as the campaign goes forward the Greens will fade and they will probably not make that breakthrough everybody is talking about.
Steve,
Your analysis of the movement of votes from Liberals to Greens, bypassing both the NDP and Conservatives is pretty interesting. It does seem like Conservatives have hit some sort of ceiling.
If that keeps up, it doesn't bode well for Conservatives in the end. The message will clearly be about a green revolution in Canada. Average Canadians will be hearing from Sierra Club et al., on the strengths and weaknesses of different environmental platforms. And at that point, Harper will have egg on his face while Dion and May will come out strong.
I look forward to May and Dion tag-teaming Harper during the televised debates. I wonder if it'll look anything like the time David McGuinty grilled John Baird during the committee meetings.
ottlib
Take over anytime, you always make strong arguments.
Chantal Hebert actually made a good point tonight on The National, in between the Dion bashing parts. She speculated that Green support would wane in the election, particularly if it looked like a Harper majority was a possibility. Dion could rally around the idea that he is the only true alternative, and people can't afford to dabble with the Greens. It was an interesting point.
As an aside, while we debate the merits of the poll, the media is running with it.
orchard
I am really looking forward to May in the debates, she has a way of looking like a grownup.
With regard to the media running with the poll story.
I posted an observation over at Red Tory's place a little while ago and I will repeat it here.
The big topic of discussion around the water cooler at work the last couple of days was not the vote on extending those "key" provisions of the Anti-terror act. It was the pick-up of Ryan Smith by the Islanders and what its implications are for the Senators.
Really, we in the political blogsphere should remember that in the real world people really do not care about the latest polls, the goings ons in Ottawa and politics in general.
In short the media can run with it all they like. Let's hope they remember to keep themselves well hydrated.
Good point. My only caution there is that if the media keeps repeating the same theme, fueled by the polls, eventually it might stick, even with the dis-interested. Having said that, I always try to remember that people, in general, aren't paying close attention, much of what interests political junkies is irrelevant in the grand scheme. In fact, Harper's whole approach banks on that premise.
"It was the pick-up of Ryan Smith by the Islanders and what its implications are for the Senators.'
What about the implications for the Oilers - and Kevin Lowe's peaceful life here in E-Town.
Sorry, OT - but if you think people in Ottawa are talking about this, try coming to Alberta! Sunset clause - what sunset clause?
The polls are only meaningful in the event that the LPC wants to dump the canoe.
They won't with these polling numbers, therefore, we will see an approved budget and some sort of agreement to bury Pablo's Bill in the Senate, and another 6 months before people talk about an election.
Or conversely, if the LPC really wants to see if May's votes stay Green, they will push Pablo's Bill to conclusion and the CPC will use the horrendous economic cost of "impementing it" as their ticket to dissolve parliament.
This would be bad strategy for the LPC since all they do is give all the parties a chance to scare the public with stories of Liberal Cooties, and Harper another weapon to bang them over the head with.
Tomm
Gayle, I am also a fan of the midnight blue and copper.
To quote John Lennon: Strange Days Indeed...
Tomm
As for the poll - who cares? Harper already said he does not want an election right now, and we all know he never lies, and does not listen to the polls, so there will be no election right now.
Dion will get his name out there - all will be good.
Remember when we did not have to be subjected to a poll every week?
gayle
That is a good point, it does seem like the number of polls has grown exponentially.
BTW, hate to say it but the Oilers got hosed in that trade.
No way! Klowe says in a few years (2015?) we will have another run at the Cup!
Actually, in fairness to KLowe - not much he could do with 20 minutes left. No one is going to trade someone big for a guy who is a UFA on July 1.
Hard to watch the guys left out there though. With trades and injuries half our team are rookies.
Can we get back to our esoteric, political conversation, that nobody cares about now? ;)
Steve:That is a good point, it does seem like the number of polls has grown exponentially
So has the commentary, by supposedly, impartial, pollsters. Listen to the rep's of this poll and how they interpret. Watch tomorrow in the news, how they did NOT pick it apart or think it through, they will simply repeat, like a parrot.
"Watch tomorrow in the news, how they did NOT pick it apart or think it through, they will simply repeat, like a parrot."
And, they always treat every poll like it is the only one in existence. Tonight's discussion on the CBC, by the supposed heavyweights, didn't even entertain the possibility that the numbers were anything less than pure fact. What happened to the critical eye?
decoin
Flames fan, just a hunch?
Steve: What happened to the critical eye?
"Blinded by the Light", of cameras perhaps?
Point of fact, I haven't a clue. Critical thought seems to be absent. If you read the papers, the letters section is often times more insightful to how people are thinking and it out flanks the reporters.
36% for the harpy, stuck there since when? no room for growth...
Blogger: Scott Diatribe points out a 'very' interesting SES poll - something doesn't jive.
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