Sunday, October 05, 2008

How The Liberals Can Win?

Disclaimer, this is a best case scenario, more about potential than rose colored glasses. I still see a path to a weak Liberal minority, if everything falls into place, if there is maximum consolidation. For arguments sake, let's put the Conservatives ahead with 35%, the Liberals at 26%, NDP 19% and the Greens at 10%, seems a pretty fair averaging, giving more weight for past accuracy.

I believe the core Conservative vote is 32%, anything lower exceptional, but you can shave a couple points off their current total. I believe the core NDP vote is 15%, I believe the core Green vote is 6%. I base this on past elections, and a reading of vote "softness". I've seen a couple findings which peg the percentage of current Green vote potentially changing as high as 48%, which makes sense, given the lack of historical support. There also seems to be some softness in the NDP vote, but in fairness that also holds true for the Liberals, to a lesser degree. What is clear, amongst soft Green and NDP support, the Liberals are the clear "second choice", this is also the case with soft Conservative supporters.

I also believe, that when looking at the national numbers, given regional efficiency, the Liberals only need to be within 2% to have a chance at a minority. The Conservatives do suffer from over the top support in some regions, which skew the national numbers, meaning if we had a scenario where the Cons are shown at say 34%, the Libs 32%, we could still win. People will remember the pre-writ polls that showed a statistical tie, but when you drilled into the numbers, you saw a Liberal victory. So, I will factor that fact into the calculation.

I can see a realistic scenario where the Liberals can shave 3% off the current Con tally used at the beginning. Some of that support would move to the NDP, so we will give the Liberals 2% of that, the NDP 1%. It's now Cons 32%, Libs 28%, NDP 20%, Greens 10%. We've seen it before, as the race reaches crescendo, the NDP are challenged to keep the focus on them, as others try to narrow the choice. It is entirely possible that the Liberals could shave 2-3% of the NDP's current tally. Let's not forget, before the election, many pollsters showed the NDP battling for third in Ontario, any gains since hardly denotes FIRM support, it can move. Let's take a mere 2% off the current NDP tally, now it's Cons 32%, Libs 30%, NDP 18% (which is still a sizeable vote), Greens 10%. That leaves the Greens, the most fertile ground for the Liberals. When push comes to shove, I see a powerful argument- if you favor a carbon tax, you need to vote for the party that can bring make this policy into law. There are many differences between the two parties, but there is no question similarities do exist, any plea is not without substantive appeal. Let's say 3% of the Green vote is siphoned off, and we will even give the NDP 1% of that. It's now Cons 32%, Libs 32%, NDP 19%, Greens 7%.

Maybe it's just me, but those final numbers don't seem outrageous at all. The NDP are still above their 2006 total, the Greens well above. I mention this, because it demonstrates a path for victory that doesn't over-estimate any erosion in the other parties vote, those are good numbers, relatively. A tie translates to a Liberal victory, or has the real possibility. If I put the Conservative total too low, remember I give others much more than 2006, so you could still draw more Liberal support elsewhere to make up, just another calculation.

Will this happen? It's just a POSSIBLE path, an optimistic view, but not an outlandish one either. What it does show, how some minor tinkering with the various party votes, turns a sizeable lead into a statistical tie.

24 comments:

Robert McClelland said...

That seems fairly reasonable as a best case scenario for the Liberals with one addition that you'll like. It's quite possible for the NDP to pick up a point or two of additional support at the expense of the Conservatives in Saskatchewan(thank you Brad Wall).

This would put your final scenario at; Cons 31%, Libs 32%, NDP 20%, Greens 7%.

900 ft Jesus said...

steve, how does strategic voting factor into your calculations? Some of the Lib/NDP vote, and Green for instance - do the polls reflect their first choice, leaving more room for a swing vote later, or do you think the polls and your analysis include strategic voting intentions to date?

Scott Tribe said...

Uh, Walks, Steve is quoting how the Liberals can win.. how does that make him a CPC sockpuppet?

By the way, thanks Steve for leaving his comment on here ... It will show what I've been putting up with at my site, which caused me to remove him when he refused to admit he was wrong about this accusation and refused to apologize to you.

A BCer in Toronto said...

When people used to ask me how on earth Dion could ever win the Liberal leadership, I used to paint a highly hypothetical best-case scenario I considered rather unlikely. Low and behold, Montreal unfolded exactly like that scenario. Point being? Anything is possible, and a week in politics is a lifetime. And unlike my leadership scenario, not that much needs to happen here for your scenario to fall into place.

liberazzi said...

I think we will see your scenario or we will be right where we are now on election day. I do not see much movement up or down for anybody, plus Harper is pretty much stating that today. Although, its probably one of his ploys. I believe it will still be CPC 140, Libs 90, but I hope I am wrong.

The only other possibility is that the CPC when the release their platform on Tuesday, have calculated that it will give them a last minute boost. They're so smart...Probably lots of gifts for the haackey moms.

Steve V said...

Scott

Nope, delete and I don't even read it :)

robert

It must be semi-reasonable if you agree :)

burlivespipe said...

There maybe a little 'rose-glasses' here, but if the gloves really came off from Dion, and he continued hammering Harper on credibility and economic agility, it's entirely possible. He needs to inject a little humour into his stump speech, something like 'I hear Stephen Harper has discovered that he has a plan. Guessing from the people he's stealing his speeches from, the plan was written by Herbert Hoover.'
Okay, i'm sure he's got better joke writers than that...
Still, as much as I'd love to believe in this possibility, I'm still seeing a lot of hemming and hawing at the doorsteps here in the Lower Mainland. Unless the party is holding off on a huge media buy like images of the RCMP bringing boxes out of the CON headquarters (or another CON calamity - which is in the realm of possibility but still you can't count on it), I'm not sure how we're going to be able to move those voters back into the fold.

burlivespipe said...

Oh, and the last time a party got a minority of votes but more seats than their rival was in 1979 - and 1957 too. But Canada's ridings have tilted much more to urban and suburban realities since then. That is what may boost your possible scenario.

Steve V said...

Decima had a 15% lead two days ago, down to 10% today, Libs up 2%, Cons the lowest they've been since the election began.

Gayle said...

Where are you getting those Decima numbers from? They are not on their site.

Steve V said...

Here. For some reason they don't post them on the site for HOURS after they're released.

Steve V said...

Just to add, the guy from Decima was on Newsworld. Harper's leadership numbers are plummeting, to lows he hasn't seen, while Dion is coming up.

Steve V said...

jesus

I think I factor in strategic voting here, because I think that is a net gain for the Libs, in more ridings.

knb said...

Re' leadership numbers, I saw that too Steve. Dion is on a slight up tick and Harpers numbers are dropping. Also, Dion's negs are going down and Harper's are on the rise.

It's an interesting scenario you put out there and not beyond the realm of possibilities.

I like good news posts!

Steve V said...

Those are Harper's lowest numbers this pollster has found.

Also, the Cons have a new ad out today, with Harper looking into the camera, detailing his economic plan, then saying now isn't the time for theories or risky policy. No sweater though!

Skinny Dipper said...

The Liberals could try to get support from the NDP and Greens. Even if the Liberals take 1/3 of the NDP and Green support, they will still be behind the Conservatives. I'm not suggesting that is not a good strategy. Certainly try it so long as the Liberals try to get an extra percent or two from the Conservatives.

Steve V said...

dipper

If we got a third of the support, that is MORE than enough. My numbers didn't consider anything like that with the NDP, so...

knb said...

Where is the Con ad Steve? I don't see it on their site.

I saw a new NDP ad today too, going after Dion.

Steve V said...

I just saw it on CTV.

Anonymous said...

I do think you might be underestimating the conservative core. However, as mentioned, the conservative support is strongly concentrated, so even even with 33% con, 31% liberal, there's still a possibility for an extremely weak minority.

Odd question, what happens if conservatives and liberals tie in the number of seats they get?

Steve V said...

anon

Why? You don't think 32% is core? I would say bottom is actually 30%, but then again I always thought our core was 30% too, so...

Scott Tribe said...

Anon:

The government - in this case the Conservatives - always in a minority parliament situation get to decide first whether to seek the support of the House or not. That's the same if they're actually trailing in seats. Paul Martin in 2006 could have conceivably tried to get the confidence of the House if he thought he could get it, even though he was down by 30 seats to the Cons.. but he knew he wouldn't and conceded election night.

TO sum up: Tradition and convention dictates the governing party before the election can try to form the government first if they think they have a shot at it.

Ken Chapman said...

There is a week of hard work ahead and a long weekend of voters reflecting on their ballot questions.

If it is does Harper deserve or can he be trusted with a majority then Greens will shift and some NDP soft votes will come to Dion.

Minority government means 12-18 months more of constant campaigning until the next election which will be happening in the full face of the impact of the American financial crisis impact.

Harper minority is likely but a reduced minority is possible if the current trends continue. For most voters the campaign starts with the debates...we will know the results that Canada wants soon.

das said...

So while the labour pool has grown 13% since 1990 , the wages of educated workers fell by 7%, according to the Stats Can report of May 2007, yet the NDP's answer is only make immigrant workers more aware of their rights. Instead of fighting for a tight labour market, the unions are fighting for a chance of recruiting more dues-paying members and the NDP is fighting for a chance to win more ethnic supporters. No thought is given to the ecological costs of more people in this country.

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