The lastest batch of polls show differing results, but the general theme of a volatile and tight race in Ontario is clear. NANOS brings the gap down to 4%, Decima raises it 10%, and Ipsos weighs in with a survey that may already be outdated, the race at 5%:
Both Decima and NANOS paint the same picture in Ontario, the Conservatives staging a late comeback, the Greens falling off, but not to the Liberals benefit. I've argued previously that a tight national race favors the Liberals, due to regional breakdowns, but that isn't really the case anymore with NANOS in particular, the Ontario numbers, if they were too hold, translate to a clear Conservative victory.
The two pollsters give the Liberals a real edge in Atlantic Canada, but the numbers tend to jump around widely, so a dose of caution. Still, better way up, then way down, psychologically anyway. Same trends in Quebec, with the exception of the NDP, Decima has them nowhere, NANOS still quite competitive (a La Presse poll today put them at 13%).
It all comes down to Ontario, where we see no signs of NDP erosion yet, the support quite strong and consistent. As I said earlier, the Greens are fading (Ipsos agrees), but it hasn't helped the Liberals in the least. The trend is Conservatives coming back, Liberals stagnant or fading somewhat, NDP vote stubborn. Not exactly what I'd like to see at this stage, but then again, the swings over the past few weeks confirm a wavering electorate, no one can claim to have cemented anything. Ontario still looks impossible to predict, many ridings may well come down to a few hundred votes, which means minor movement could translate to massive impact.
Will we see a late break?