Pollorama

A new Strategic Counsel poll tonight, to go with the usual NANOS and Decima offering. First, the SC poll, which gives us some interesting Ontario breakdowns. Overall:

Conservative: 33 per cent (-3)

Liberal: 28 per cent (-2)

NDP: 18 per cent (none)

Bloc Quebecois: 10 per cent (-1)

Green Party: 11 per cent (+6)

The 2006 results are in brackets, and we actually have a tight contest, which is very similar to NANOS. Decima and NANOS both have a tight race in Ontario, SC the only ones to give the Liberals a slight advantage(again 2006 in brackets):

Liberal: 35 per cent (-5)

Conservative: 31 per cent (-4)

NDP: 22 per cent (+2)

Green Party: 13 per cent (+8)

Very competitive in the various regions, and for the first time in a SC poll, the Liberal are outpacing the Conservatives across the board, albeit by slight margins:

According to the poll, the Tories could find themselves in extremely tight races in those suburban ridings, running neck-and-neck with the Liberals. In the 905 region, the Liberals are at 41 per cent while the Conservatives are at 38; in the 519 region, the Liberals are at 32 and the Tories are at 29.

In the traditional Liberal stronghold of Toronto, party support remains relatively solid at 42 per cent, while the Tories are at 28 per cent. The NDP trails at 17 per cent, while the Green Part is at 13 per cent.

The big caveat, and it speaks to possible fluidity:

The poll also says that 46 per cent of Canadians are still thinking who to vote for during the Thanksgiving weekend, while 12 per cent say they won't make up their minds until they're actually at the ballot box.

"We know that increasingly people make up their minds at the last minute," Donolo said.

The basic thesis here, people aren't particularly impressed with anyone, not much conviction within the electorate.

NANOS gives the NDP some momentum in Ontario, up to a very impressive 26%, another possible sign of apathetic voters looking elsewhere to place their vote. Will it hold? The upper reaches of it are clearly soft, but the trendline is extremely positive.

With regards to Quebec, all the polls show the Conservatives well below their 2006 total, while the NDP is trending down, even NANOS now showing erosion. Decima gives the NDP a paltry 9%, while SC has them even lower still at 7%, running fifth in the province. Not really hard to believe, when you don't have traditional support, there is always the danger of fading in the final days. Here are the SC results, primarily because they're something new(2006 in brackets):

Bloc Quebecois: 42 per cent (same)

Liberal: 24 per cent (+3)

Conservative: 18 per cent (-7)

NDP: 7 per cent (-1)

Green Party: 9 per cent (+5)

All the pollsters have the Liberals at or above their 2006 support, the Conservatives lucky to hold on to what they have, most likely down to single digit seats in the province. Couldn't have happened to a nicer bunch of two faced hypocrites, who have ran a shameful, intellectually dishonest and classless, but entirely predictable, campaign ;)

One more intruiging question from SC, the prospects of a coalition government:

Across Canada and party lines, 46 per cent said they would back a Liberal-NDP coalition to replace the Conservatives, while 41 per cent opposed the idea. Support was highest among Quebec voters at 54 per cent, and lowest in Western Canada at 35 per cent support.

Among Liberal voters, 76 per cent liked the idea of uniting with the New Democrats to form a government. NDP voters found it slightly less appealing at 68 per cent support.

Unsurprisingly, 81 per cent of Conservative voters said they opposed the idea.

When respondents were asked if they supported the Bloc being part of that coalition, 57 per cent of Canadians said they would oppose it, while only 30 per cent were in support. Outside of Quebec, roughly two thirds of voters said they didn't want such a coalition.

Liberal voters were largely split on the idea, with 41 per cent saying they would back a coalition involving the Bloc if it meant replacing the Conservatives. Another 47 per cent opposed the idea.

Among NDP voters, 57 per cent said they opposed the idea of a coalition government if the Bloc were involved -- higher than Liberal voters. Another 32 per cent said they backed the idea.

More support a coalition, than oppose, a fact which should be noted, given the dynamics at play.

Overall, still a race with many possibilities, small swings at the last moment could make an incredible difference. A Liberal victory is clearly optimistic, although it doesn't require koolaid, just an optimal end game. But on the other hand, the prospects of a diminished Conservative mandate look very real, so the ideas of what constitutes victory and defeat, a very sorted analysis.