Tuesday, October 07, 2008

Liberals Can Win!

All the polls are narrowing, NANOS now brings the Liberals to within the margin of error, the gap a MERE three points:
Cons 34%
Libs 31%
NDP 18%
Greens 6%

Liberals up 2%, NDP down 2%, Conservatives and Greens unchanged. Can we stop with the battle for second crap now MSM? We may be seeing the first signs of consolidation behind the Liberals, early, but that's the key.

The regionals show a big gap in Ontario:

Libs 40%(up 3%)
Cons 31% (down 2%)
NDP 22% (down 2%)

That tend mirrors Decima, who show the Conservatives Ontario support falling apart, down to a lowly 26%.

Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada, slightly ahead of the Conservatives in Quebec, an uptick in the "west".

Decima has a 5% gap today, a far cry from the 15% gap only a few days ago. EKOS also show a tightening race, the trends are irrefutable.

When the Liberals were well behind, and it looked bleak, my best case scenario was that we narrowed the gap to 4-5% by weeks end, knowing that it was a real possiblility to see late breakers moving to us in the last two days. Even if we see some back and forth now in the day to day numbers, the Liberals are now well placed to have a realistic shot at taking this election.

39 comments:

Anonymous said...

Could what we're seeing be the delayed reaction to the threats of a Conservative Majority that was in the air?

And if so, will it evaporate once people start thinking there's no possibility of that happening?

Although Harper's comment today of "If we don't get re-elected" strikes me as their internal polling starting to tell them things they really didn't want to hear.

Steve V said...

anon

Absolutely not. I don't think this has anything to do with a Harper majority. Look, the Liberals always had a core vote, so when it wandered, it was always available to comeback. This is about a lack of economic leadership, coupled with Dion showing himself to be a capable alternative. The good news, the Cons are really down, and we still have ample room to siphon off more soft support. With polls showing a two way race, Layton will be hard pressed to stay center stage, his arguments will look unrealistic, and as happens everytime, the media will start to focus on who can actually become PM. Dion now has that air, it still needs some help, but it's CREDIBLE, and that's what matters. Plus, you can feel momentum, and I bet you can't wipe the smiles off his handlers today, the media will sense that. Fun days ahead!

catherine said...

Things could still move around. But, still there are only 6 media days left, and 3 of these are a long weekend. Right now the Liberals have the momentum and, so, it seems most likely they are in a position to further gain while the Conservatives lose. Time for all Liberals to give and do whatever they can.

In 2006, the polls didn't change much in the last week, and their average was not very different than the result, except that Liberals were lower in the polls and some of the smaller parties were a bit higher.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:CombinedPollsVotes-39Cdnelxn.png

Steve V said...

catherine

Don't forget, and the pollsters attest to this fact, when families gather, it can impact a race. Everyone will be talking about the economy this thanksgiving, hard to see how that hurts us.

Like you said though, it's important that if tomorrow we see a slight widening, because tracking polls are funny animals, we don't get excited. We are now where we need to be, to have a chance, and that reality should hold, point up or down aside.

Glyn (Zaphod) Evans said...

Can win? We WILL win!!!!

liberazzi said...

Awesome, awesome, awesome. Dion is the most underated politician of all time.

If the Libs slip back a bit and we are basically at status quo again ie. CPC minority, who is in more jeopardy, Dion or Harper? This is Harper's third or forth kick at the can now.

Also, what is the last day that a poll can be published, because isn't there a blackout a few days before?

Steve V said...

I think it's the day before E-Day.

Anonymous said...

Do you have a source for some poll trend analysis. I would be interested to see who overall is up and down. The daily polls are difficult to decipher as the persepctive is lost.

Steve V said...

anon

Just go to the pollster websites. The trends are pretty obvious, Cons down nationally, way down in Ontario and Quebec. Libs up in Ontario and Quebec, some uneven suggestion of good things in Atlantic Canada.

Steve V said...

As an aside, where have all those Conservative trolls gone anyways? Strange.

liberazzi said...

Strange that Harper's numbers went up, but Dion's went down.

Also, do you think the platform will give Harper a bounce or is the damage already done? The platform itself was pretty bland, although he is trying to suck up to Quebec again.

Anonymous said...

Hey, we might be able to hold what we have in BC afterall.

The lawn sign war is very much in our favour in the City of Vancouver and this tidbit today from CBC News regarding our strength in Greater Victoria:

"The three local candidates, including Victoria's Anne Park Shannon, were buoyed by inside polling, which they claim shows Liberal support is increasing on southern Vancouver Island."

Steve V said...

I think that platform is going over like a lead balloon, but then I'm biased :)

Steve V said...

anon

Good news!

Gayle said...

"Can we stop with the battle for second crap now MSM?"

Last night Craig Oliver and Roger Smith were saying the notion the NDP were going to be the opposition was always a myth.

Amazing how they just wipe out history and pretend they never claimed otherwise.

Steve V said...

gayle

Did those two stooges actually say that? Do they erase the videotape every night, and start from scratch? I've heard those two say exactly that, on repeated occasions. I'm almost tempted to watch Duffy today, to see him torture himself spinning Harper's able fiscal management, the great platform.

catherine said...

Here's a summary of all the polls which shows the trends and is updated at least once a day. The numbers appear below the graph so you can see which points correspond to which polls.

Not that I want to encourage poll-gazing, but Nanos plus the average trends is probably useful information.

Gayle said...

Lead baloon! Really?

Don't you know that in tough economic times it is always important to turn our minds to senate reform?

Steve V said...

According to Staples, if you input the NANOS regionals, you get:

LP: 113 CP: 111 BQ: 54 NDP: 30

That just shows, our vote is more efficient, a tie=Liberal minority.

Steve V said...

catherine

Personally, I rarely look at the polls.

gayle

I think this platform just reinforced the narrative, and these transparent initiatives are seen with complete cynicism. Did you see how irate Harper was getting in the post-release presser? Harper's fine, when everything goes according to script, but any hiccup and they are as nimble as a three toed sloth.

Joseph said...

I hear Harper flailed on Mansbridge today as well. That sweater is unraveling fast.

What is this I read about Canada Savings bond sales being suspended???

That instills a lot of confidence.

I have no idea how this ties, and don't want to spread pure gossip. But someone suggested that might be a way of avoiding having to reveal a deficit prior to the election (because of the consumer information related to the bonds?).

Does that make any sense to anyone here?

Either way, isn't it a bit strange to eliminate the "safest" investment conduit during a financial crisis?

Joseph said...

Here's the link to the story about bonds: http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2008/10/07/bond-delay.html

Steve V said...

That's beyond me, but it seems strange. Speaking of delays, remember when I scoffed at the suggestion that the Afghan war costs would be released in the last week of the election? Surprise, surprise, can't quite seem to get it passed the review board in time. Shocking.

liberazzi said...

Steve:

Yes, I was about to mention that 31% puts them in a seat tie with the CPC and close to minority territory, but tomorrow's another day.

Question: Are the Libs peaking too early. Ha Ha.

JimmE said...

Perhaps we could take up a collection & buy Mr H, & what's his name .. Mr. K a checker set.

Miles Lunn said...

This is certainly good news. I think a Liberal win is very much within the possibility. I agree the Greens and NDP over overinflated in other polls. As for the Tories, they could get a bounce back, although they could decline even further. Although any bounce back will still put them well short of a majority.

Constant Vigilance said...

Don't ignore the impact of this on the CPC workers. They have been full of themselves for 2 years now.

There will be some depression/desperation affecting their campaign workers if the slide continues. Mr. Ordinary was going to lead them on a glorious march to a majority. What do they have to sell on the doorstep now?

Gayle said...

Today on Duffy Lapierre said Quebec CPC candidates are angry about how the campaign is being managed. They said they were told not to say anything but to parrot Harper, and now he has released a platform they believe would have helped them at the beginning of the campaign, but it is too late now...

ottlib said...

At the beginning of this election the dynamic amongst progressives was stop Harper from getting his majority.

Now the dynamic could change to throwing him out.

The first dynamic leads to vote splitting.

The second dynamic could lead to a coalescing of the vote towards the Liberals in a big way. Not just from the Greens and the Dippers but from the Conservatives as well.

If that happens, particularly in Quebec and Ontario the Liberals win with the possibility of winning big.

Gayle said...

I did promise to abandon political blogs forever if Dion wins a majority, so I want a minority.

Because it is all about me...

Steve V said...

I think you're safe there gayle ;)

Anonymous said...

What is that US Marines' thingey which is so expressive of how I feel after reading this post and all these comments??

Hoooaah!

Something like that, anyways.

As far as dynamics go, I am with Ottlib - I thing the very real possibilty of showing Harper the door, not just for Canada but also from his own party, is swimming into view and we can now set our sights on this as a realistic, justifiable and attainable goal. A week is forever in politics so now we can start selling this idea along with all the other good material the Liberals have given us to work with.

I, for one, would enjoy watching a Conservative leadership race right now. A refreshing change of subject and a whole new horse race. Let's put this baby to bed!

I emailed out that web-based ad regarding the Liberals being the only ones with an actual plan to protect our water from bulk export. I also just snagged a cynical progressive by telling him this as I left work today. Let's hammer home this point which is of top concern to many progressives, especially those paranoid about the NAU / SPP agreement. We have NDP Mulclair on record stating that water should be sold for profit and Dion saying No sir, not our water! No way, no how.

We need all the progressive votes we can get this week lining up solidly behind the red banner and this is doable folks. I would agree with this oft proclaimed sentiment that Dion is so underestimated, and it is to his opponents' detriment to ignore this.

Can we bring forward some type of visual unifier which would serve the same purpose the green scarves did at the Liberal convention?? Obviously, we can't hand out scarves but surely all these bright, quick minds can come up with something similar which would achieve the same effect. Just imagine being in that convention hall and everytime you rounded a corner or climbed stairs, there you were confronted by a growing sea of green scarves. This visual signal would have had a very strong effect on the minds of those present and it should be credited with building the enthusiasim necessary to maintain great momentum and increase it. Physics 101 - rolling an object requires effort at first and then it achieves that wonderful state of momentum and off she goes, those pushing are now running to keep up.

-Blackstar

Dame said...

In This fast Forward Time I was smiling at the thought what just jumped into my head ...yeah what is the NDP is right and they could be the real Opposition Party in the next awile OPPOSING the Liberals as the Governing Party??? HEH...
OK OK I am Jumpy Now...

marta

liberazzi said...

Let's not get ahead of ourselves, tomorrow's another day of polls...The trend is good, but we are still not there yet. Savour today, but we still have 7 days to go. Blood is in the air, but remember not everyone is as keen on Dion as we are. The kitchen sink is being ripped out of the wall this very moment.

Steve V said...

lib

That goes without saying :)

burlivespipe said...

I'm not normally someone who pours cold water on purpose, but let's stay on the gameplan. The CONs have been masterful (at times) at dictating the messaging; while Harper looks off his game - saying its a great time to buy - I still think there are too many forces protecting him and too many people who's opinion of Dion has been poisoned to take the big leap we're all hoping for. For example, I watched Cpac this a.m. of the Dion-Trudeau rally here in Vancouver, but didn't see one mention of it on local CTV or BCTV -- did i blink? If Harper had shown up with 'his star candidate' (that would have to be James Moore's dog) my guess is that the image would appear by the second break.
My mood is slightly dampened by having read the tea leaves in the Alberta election, where 'change was in the air' but never on paper... Kerry losing to Bush despite no logical rationale.
There's still a gap to make up. Let's roll up our sleeves, even ignore the blog for a while (but not too long!) and push, pull and cajole every possible vote for Tuesday. In the last few days, Harper has really shown himself as a cretin, and hopefully those fence sitters and soft-Ndp/greenies will want to put his regressive government into pasture, in exchange for a progressive one!

lept said...

(Ah - imagine if you guys had made a good choice of leader!)
Interesting detail from 'here': eighty-eight year old long time Conservative hack has been very influenced in favour of Harper (whom she did NOT vote for last time) through the constant flow of 'information' bulletins we have been receiving here - from Monte Solberg among others, asking totally manipulative questions about the age of consent and such: she watched the interview with Dion on Radio-Canada and decided that he had finally taken his gloves off and that he could be a 'real politician' and voted for him in the advance poll yesterday

Steve V said...

lept

He did well in that interview??

lept said...

Steve: Annoyingly well (while Harper was nothing other than controlled). I hear that he is actually occasionally coherent in English now?
My ideal result has always been another Conservative minority and quick change of leadership for the Grits but I find now that, despite his betrayal of Quebec and the fact that I am going to vote for our very effective Bloc candidate, I find myself hoping that we can rid ourselves of the Harper plague with a Dion win!