The latest Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey suggests the Tories have 32 per cent support, with the Liberals at 30 per cent, which is within the survey’s margin of error.
The NDP have 13 per cent, the Greens 12 per cent and the Bloc is at nine per cent.
Some recent polls, namely the preceived reliable CROP offering, have shown the Conservatives moving up in Quebec. Two weeks ago Decima had the Conservatives well back in third- Bloc 37% Libs 27% Cons 19% NDP 12%. The newest poll still seems to understand Conservative support, although it does show erosion for the Liberals:
In Quebec, the latest poll suggested 37 per cent support for the Bloc, 21 per cent each for the Conservatives and Liberals, 10 per cent for the Greens and nine per cent for the NDP.
These results are the reason I put a question mark in the title. I'm prepared to believe the CROP poll over Decima, based on sample size and previous predictability. The understating of Quebec support makes a national tie slightly off. That said, the Liberal drop in Quebec seems reasonable, given what has transpired in the last couple of weeks, and Decima is now in line with others.
In Ontario, the survey suggested the Liberals are at 38 per cent with the Tories at 33 per cent. The Green party has 15 per cent, leading the NDP at 10 per cent.
That seems a pretty good result for the Liberals, but it is a drop, based on the last week of Decima's previous poll:
In Ontario, latest results show the Liberals with 43%, compared to the Conservatives 32%,
the NDP 14%, and the Greens at 9%.
That poll was done in the midst of the Flaherty assault, there appears to be some pullback since, as the story returns to Liberal inaction.
Still, the real story here, the NDP at 10% in Ontario, a number I've never seen, even if for a brief moment. That works in concert with the lowly 13% nationally, all indications that the NDP strategy of painting the Liberals as ineffective isn't drawing any disgruntled support their way. These numbers might also be a reflection of the by-election results, which gave a wave of negative coverage to the NDP.
The good news for the Liberals, and more potential bad news for the NDP:
The survey suggested the Liberals are the second choice for 30 per cent of voters, while the Tories are the second choice for 19 per cent.
This narrows the Conservative chance for growth.
“There’s a lack of enthusiasm for the Conservatives, waning interest in the NDP and a firming of support for the Green party,” he said...
“NDP voters show increased interest in the Liberals and fewer Conservative voters see the Liberal brand as toxic.”
A small caveat, the lower numbers in Ontario and Quebec for the Liberals would probably mean their second choice totals would increase with other party voters- that seems logical. That said, worrying signs for the NDP, and the sense of potential for the Liberals.