At the moment, the polling averages give Clinton about a 6% lead, which sets the stage for an interesting night. However, the two most recent polls bring some promising signs for Clinton. An American Research Group poll, finished last night puts the race at:
A caution, ARG's track record has been spotty this primary season.
Speaking of "spotty", Zogby is conducting nightly rolling polls for Pennsylvania, and the results show movement for Clinton. Tonight's poll has Clinton leading by 6 points, up from 3% the night prior. What seems particularly good for Clinton, the last day of polling:
John Zogby: “A big one-day of polling for Clinton. If a 10-point victory is the pundit-driven threshold she needs on Tuesday, it looks like she can do it. This does not look like a one-day anomaly – undecideds dropped to only 5% in this latest single day of polling, and they are breaking Clinton’s way. As I suggested yesterday, if white and Catholic voters, who still are the biggest portion of undecideds, actually vote, Clinton will have her double-digit victory. Just today alone, she polled 53% to Obama’s 38%.
For Obama supporters, there is the Mason-Dixon poll, which stopped polling on Friday. That well respected outfit only gives Clinton a 5% lead, with 8% still undecided.
I would argue that an 8% margin is enough for Clinton to claim victory. While that means little in the way of a delegate dent, it still represents a solid result, in another key state, within the environment of Obama supposedly "unstoppable". I accept the lower margin, primarily because Obama has brought out all the stops in Pennsylvania, he has campaigned very hard, established an impressive ground game, not to mention outspending Clinton on ads a full 3-4 times(incredibly important in a big state).