Friday, April 25, 2008

Quebec Poll

A new Leger Marketing poll of Quebecer's federal voting intention. A very large sample size (1002), much larger than generally seen in the national polls, with regional results. Leger suggests some movement for the Conservatives, at the expense of the Liberals:
Bloc 33%
Conservatives 29%
Liberals 21%
NDP 12%
Greens 4%

The last Leger Marketing poll was done in February, with a much smaller sample size (360):
Bloc 35%
Liberals 27%
Conservative 21%
NDP 11%
Greens 6%

Two possible factors for the flip between the federalist parties- the negative press surrounding the Quebec wing of the federal Liberals and the recent sponsorship arrest. That said, this latest poll puts Liberal support exactly where it was in the 2006 election, so it isn't a hopeless result.

The last CROP Quebec poll showed a dead heat between the Cons and Bloc, but since then all other polls haven't replicated this result. Leger comes close, and the large sample lends credibility to the results. I'm still somewhat tentative, because if you look at the Leger results for the past year, you see support wavering back and forth between the Libs and Cons, Bloc fairly stable. That tells me, there is plenty of fluidity, soft support that could move in an election campaign. That sentiment doesn't translate to no appreciation of the challenges the Liberal brand faces in Quebec.

On the sovereignty front, only 31% of Quebecers support independence. Even more surprising, amongst PQ supporters 45% think the party should seek to improve the position of Quebec within Canada, 50% think the party should persue independence. I saw a scenario where Harper uses this type of sentiment to argue his approach to federalism has been successful, the need for the Bloc less persuasive.

14 comments:

Scott in Montreal said...

Habs in play-offs and winning + gorgeous weather + no major signs of recession (like in Ontario) + headlines of Corbeil's arrest and pundits speculating on who is next = general happiness for the average Québecois(e) and little willingness to think about politics at the moment.

This rosy picture won't last once les américains fail to vacation here this summer, gas prices keep going up, food prices start to go up and Habs-mania dies down.

So fall election, I would guess, unless the Habs go out in this or next round.

WesternGrit said...

What dates did this poll cover? If it was pre-"raid", or shortly post-"visit" (before the media had a chance to report it out), then there are changes afoot. Let the scandal burn into the collective psyche for a couple of weeks, then give me poll results. Quebec is too fluid right now anyways... The back and forth between the two federalist parties (I don't count the dippers or greens) tells me, as well, that there is a lot of movement and soft support in-between...

Let's hope the Cons view this as a sign that they should force an election right now... Go ahead and make our day, Harper!

bigcitylib said...

Thanks, Steve. I've been looking for this poll all day.

Steve V said...

"the Habs go out in this or next round."

Let's hope so ;)

wilson said...

the Leger website for voting intentions broke down by province/region:

http://www.legermarketing.com/eng/votes.asp

Antonio said...

You mean another polling firm in Quebec disagrees with national polls about Tory support in Quebec?

I'd call this news if it were actually news.

Steve V said...

"I'd call this news if it were actually news."

I was waiting for you ;)

Antonio, to be fair here, their poll two months ago actually mirrored the other polls. I agree, this is more in line with CROP, but I'd like to see more of a trend before saying this is real, because past results haven't shown any consistency.

Anonymous said...

The previous poll by Leger that was cited was a national poll of 1,500 that includes 300-odd people in Quebec. I tend to put way more stock in a province-wide poll of 1,000.

BTW: I notice that some national polls put Green support in Quebec as high as 12% (even though they are totally non-existent there), but CROP and Leger tend to have them at 4% or so. Simple explanation - the national polling firms tend to just read the party names. CROP and Leger mention the leaders (ie: Le parti vert d'Elizabeth May). The moment that you remind people that the Green Party is not just an abstract idea but is an actual party led by some unilingual anglo woman that no one in Quebec has ever heard of - their support totally evaporates.

Steve V said...

anon

I don't buy that nonsense on the Greens, seems you have an axe to grind, rather than fair commentary.

And, if you want isolate your mind just to Quebec only polls, then the Liberals are actually up since the last one, the Conservatives stagnant. Is that better?

Steve V said...

Just one more point here. I've looked at the accuracy of these national polls, with the same sample sizes, for the last election. Their Quebec numbers were pretty accurate, so people shouldn't just dismiss them and pick ones which further their own bias. I agree, a bigger sample is more indicative, and I've acknowledged that here, and for CROP, but that doesn't mean I scoff at any result that doesn't show the Con support high- the others don't have a bad track record.

Anonymous said...

Call it nonsense if you want - but there is a clear pattern in poll after poll that the moment you like the Green Party to the name of their leader - their support plummets - esp. in Quebec where she has no public profile whatsoever (not speaking a word of French will do that to you)

Steve V said...

anon

I would love you to provide some evidence of that. Thanks.

Antonio said...

the surprising result of that poll steve is that the PLQ supporters split 50-50 in support for the CPC and the LPC.

My guess is it is a split of Montreal vs outside Montreal.

United federalist vote = bad nightmares for Gilles Duceppe

Steve V said...

Gilles must love those NDP numbers too.