Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Flaherty: Before And After

The final polling outfit, yet to do a poll since Flaherty's assault on Ontario has weighed in, offering further confirmation of the damage:
"Flaherty's anti-Ontario comments appear to have struck a sour note, stripping the Harper Conservatives of support ":

The Strategic Counsel survey, conducted April 10-13, found that 36 per cent of voters would support the Tories if an election were held today, compared with 30 per cent who would back the Liberals. Support for the NDP has dropped three points from 2006, to 15 per cent... while the Greens have the support of 10 per cent of Canadians, double their election level.

The last Strategic Counsel poll had the Conservatives with a 12 point lead over the Liberals, it is now down to 6, despite an uptick in support in Quebec. The difference:
Ontario voters currently prefer the Liberals over the Tories by 42 per cent to 33 per cent, a jump of eight points for the Liberals from one month ago. NDP 14%, Greens 12%.

The last SC poll, done in mid-February, showed the Conservatives with momentum in Ontario, a fact mirrored by some of the other polling companies:
Cons 42%
Libs 34%
Greens 13%
NDP 11%

A massive 17 point swing, before and after, well outside of any recent vacillation. In this poll, you see a direct co-relation with voters swinging back to the Liberals en masse, at the Conservatives expense. Anyone who questions whether this change lies at the feet of Flaherty needs to give their head a shake. Every poll has shown the same trend, and it reaffirms the characterization that this strategy of attacking Ontario represents the biggest political blunder of this government.

In Quebec, the Conservatives have seen an uptick in support. The pollster attributes this to the Liberals recent troubles, but most of the gain seems to come at the Bloc's expense:
Bloc 36%
Cons 27%
Libs 20%
Greens 10%
NDP 7%

The last SC poll had the Bloc 40%, Cons 22%, Libs 19%, Greens 14%, NDP 5%. No Liberal erosion, but bottom tends to be firm ground.

Overall, another good trend for the Liberals, the Conservatives big lead evaporated. SC is now somewhat in line with other outfits, or at the least, no longer an outlier. One fact is indisputable, the Conservatives are at a low mark in Ontario, the Liberals riding high, which makes an election more attractive, all things considered.

5 comments:

Steve V said...

Nanos also has a new Ontario poll, which shows the provincial Liberals at their highest total since the spring of 2004, another sign of the Flaherty failure.

Scott Tribe said...

I still think SC is trending higher with Con support then other polling firms... but that's quite a swing in Ontario.

Steve V said...

scott

If you look at most of the polls, they were actually trending for the Cons in Ontario, prior to Flaherty. If memory serves, there were 3 outfits that had the Cons ahead in Ontario, and now everyone of them has them down, in the aftermath. The SC national numbers seemed out of whack with others, now it is more in line, or at least reasonable. The only difference now, they tend to give the Cons more support in Quebec than some others, CROP aside.

The Grumpy Voter said...

So the level of rhetoric from Liberals should tell Canadians what..."vote for us because we're not quite as scandalous than the Tories"?

Steve V said...

grumpy

That's too simplistic. You have to offer a vision, but if your opponent gives you an opening, ala Flaherty, you pour into it. That's just the reality, and everyone does it, EVERYONE- including Obama ;)