Ontario (3 week average)
Decima's Bruce Anderson:
"In Ontario, we now have a situation, where the Liberals have a massive lead in the 416, a pretty good lead in the 905, a 5-6% lead in the 519 southwestern Ontario region. They only trail the Conservatives in eastern Ontario".
If these provincial regional numbers were to hold, we would see a healthy Liberal seat gain in Ontario. As an aside, did anyone hear about the new Liberal buttons- "My Canada Includes Ontario". Brilliant :)
Quebec (3 week average):
Pretty consistent results, which suggests the recent infighting hasn't hurt too badly.
The most intriguing story is the British Columbia results. While the margin of error is 5.1%, Anderson offers an interesting development:
"Each of the last three weeks, we have had the Liberals ahead of the other parties in B.C., which hasn't happened before."
More bad news for the Conservatives:
"In 2006, around the time of the election, we measured urban voters as a 5% advantage for the Conservatives. It had always been a tough situation for the Conservatives, but they overcame that. In the election they won by 5%, now they trail by 7%, a pretty important swing."
Hard to find a silver lining for Conservatives, they are also falling further behind with women voters, especially older women, who tend to show up at the polls moreso than other demographics.
I see a window here, the trends are pretty firm, with all the pollsters. I would argue we are now at Conservative bottom, nobody should expect the numbers to drop below 30%. The Liberals still have room for expansion, if you subscribe to the notion that soft Green support is more likely to move to the Liberals, IF anywhere, should an appealing case be made.
Does it get any better than this??