Thursday, April 03, 2008

Obama Closing In Pennsylvania

Just as the Obama camp tries to lower expectations in Pennsylvania, the polls are clearly showing a narrowing, Obama looks to have momentum. It was only a couple weeks ago, that most polls showed Clinton with a big double digit lead (average 16%). It would appear Obama's huge fundraising advantage, which has allowed him to outspend Clinton 4-1 in Pennsylvania is paying dividends. The three most recent polls:
Insider Advantage:

Clinton 45$
Obama 42%

PPD:

Obama 45%
Clinton 43%

Rasmussen:

Clinton 47%
Obama 42%

On top of the fundraising advantage, Clinton is increasingly on the defensive to justify her campaign, which may be another reason to explain Obama's mini "surge". On the other hand, the national polls don't seem to indicate that, with the last four offerings all within the margin of error:
Gallup:

Obama 49%
Clinton 46%

CBS/NYT:

Obama 46%
Clinton 43%

Rasmussen:

Obama 46%
Clinton 43%

NBC/WSJ:

Obama 45%
Clinton 45%

Obama was pulling away, and it looked to be a trend, but since then the gap is back to a virtual stalemate.

On the whole, good signs for Obama in Pennsylvania, if he could ever pull out a win, the race would be over, given the expectations. In reality, a close result also works for Obama, because anything less than a decisive win for Clinton, in a state she needs desperately, and the calls for her to pull out will reach crescendo.

7 comments:

The Mound of Sound said...

Steve, do you think this is ever going to end for the Dems to emerge sufficiently intact to begin pecking away at McCain? Right now I think the biggest threat McCain faces is Moqtada al Sadr in showing that the notion the "surge" was a success was never more than illusion.

Cheers

gene said...

Steve:
I now live in PA, and Obama must be dramatically outspending Clinton. He is running very strong anti-big business, anti-oil company television adds, and seriously heavied-up radio flights. Clinton is running her new "3 AM" ad but this time aimed at McCain. Since it has been so widely parodied ("Bill got arrested where? Doing what?") I don't think it is effective - so he is out-positioning her. She needs new spots now while there are a few days left.

Scott Tribe said...

I expect Scott Ross to show up here and slam you for a biased post.
;)

DivaRachel said...

Go Obama!

Steve V said...

gene

Thanks for the inside scoop :)

mound

If they wrap it up by June, like Dean is demanding, the Dems should be fine. I don't think anyone is prepared to let this fight go to the convention. The downside, if Clinton does win in Penn, then Obama is weakened, because that fact hardly suggests a strong nominee.

LarryB said...

"The Obama campaign has proposed a 50-50 split of both states’ delegations."

That is ludicrous.

That is as if no one voted at all.

With the disgusting bias of the press for Obama, and the use of caucuses, super delegates, not counting 2 states, and the big boys of the Democratic Party pushing Hillary to get out of the race to the point she can't raise money.......

Perhaps we just need to save the money on gathering the choice of those pesky voters and just let the press and the party bosses caucus for the next President.

Larry B
San Antonio, Texas

Mushroom said...

Update.

Hillary has just fired Mark Penn. Her campaign has finally triangled herself to death.

The NAFTA booster in the 90s is so desperate to win Penn that she will build economic firewalls across from the Delaware to the Allegheny. Hope Obama destroys her.