Tuesday, April 01, 2008

Online Polls

Everytime I post a online poll, the usual suspects diss the results out of hand. It's not necessarily the results- although the cries tend to be louder if the numbers don't support the partisan want- it's the methodology. I prefer to base my opinion, on the actual accuracy, the real results, compared to the polling, to gauge if the Angus Reid online poll is worthy of consideration. I will let you be the judge, no opinion, just the numbers for the last four provincial elections:
SASK ELECTION 2007
Results..... Angus Reid Poll
Sask. 52%.... 52%

NDP 37%.... 35%

Lib. 10%.... 12%

Oth. 2%.... 2%

ONTARIO ELECTION 2007

Results..... Angus Reid Poll

Lib. 42%.... 40%

PC 32%.... 34%

NDP 17%.... 19%

Grn. 8%.... 7%

MANITOBA ELECTION 2007

Results.... Angus Reid Poll

NDP 48%.... 49%

PC 38%.... 37%

Other 14%.... 15%

QUEBEC ELECTION 2007

Results.... Angus Reid Poll

Lib. 33% 31%

ADQ 31% 30%

PQ 28% 29%

Looks pretty darn accurate from here. Just the facts please.

7 comments:

Greg said...

How did they do on the last two federal elections, compared with Nanos?

Anonymous said...

I agree totally that on-line polls can be just as accurate as phone polls and I find the Angus Reid numbers very credible. But Angus Reid is not infallible. They were off by a mile in the Alberta election

Kris said...

greg

This kind of polling wouldn't have been around for the last two elections I suspect. The methodology seems to have improved, that's for sure. Those numbers are impressive.

What were the Alberta numbers?

Miles Lunn said...

I think those who diss online polling due more so due to discomfort. In fact a large segment of the population today no longer has a land line so phone polls in many ways tend to over-represent the older segments of the population while online polls probably over-represent the younger voters so neither is perfect, but if the survey is large enough and done randomly they can be accurate.

Steve V said...

I thought he started ARS in 2006. I guess all I'm saying, this methodology might be coming into its own.

Anonymous said...

As for Alberta:
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/30035/stelmach_leads_but_turnout_a_factor_in_alberta

Anonymous said...

Last part of the address was cut off-
Alberta
Decided Voters:
PC 43 Lib 28 NDP 13
Certain Voters:
PC 39 Lib 30 NDP 13