Wednesday, May 27, 2009


New CROP poll for Quebec, which shows some movement between the Liberals and Bloc, further confirmation that the Conservatives are in big trouble, now third in their supposed "stronghold". The numbers, with last survey in brackets:
Bloc 36% (31%)
Libs 32% (37%)
Cons 15% (15%)
NDP 12% (12%)

The last CROP poll might have been a bit ambitious for the Liberals, a lead outside of the margin of error. The pollster attributes this movement to mere "stabilization", noting that the last poll took place during a very high profile sequence of events for the Liberals and Ignatieff. Moving forward, we can expect to see some vacillation in the numbers, but the dynamic remains the same- Liberals and Bloc relatively close, Conservatives consistently looking irrelevant.

What is particularly worrisome for the Conservatives, CROP now has them running third in the Quebec City region. The Liberals are actually running first at 33%, which hasn't happened since before the sponsorship scandal. If the Conservatives are losing hold of their incumbent region, it's getting very ugly.

Speaking of ugly, no direct attack ad information, but Ignatieff towers above Harper on the PM score:
Ignatieff 39%
Layton 21%
Harper 15%

The pollster notes, the last federal leader to achieve such a low score was Stephane Dion.

The Harper government also achieves the worst satisfaction result since a poll done days prior to Martin's defeat.

From the Liberal perspective, it's important to remember that not ever poll is going to bring new heights, we've been a bit spoiled lately. Expect to see more jockeying around, but the fundamentals are there and that's what matters moving forward. From the Conservative perspective, the battle now seems to be one of merely staying relevant.


KNB said...

You're right. We shouldn't get ahead of ourselves but those PM numbers are pretty damning for Harper.

Steve V said...

And the worst part, Harper doesn't have any room to reinvent himself. Nobody will believe him now, he's a known quantity. I take some solace in watching Harper now pay for his despicable performance after the November update. Harper's scorched earth policy may have saved him in the short term, but it's cemented him moving forward.

Anthony said...

that might be good enough for duceppe to contemplate dumping ahrper now to stem his losses

unless Layton wants to save Harper

Steve V said...

That's a good point. You want the Bloc to see opportunity, otherwise they'll avoid an election at all costs. For the Liberals, probably the best numbers are something of this order, with a sense that we can do even better in a campaign. If we poll to high, then others aren't inclined, so it's almost a double edged sword.

sassy said...

Anthony - unless Layton wants to save Harper . . . gave me an evil chuckle.