Apparently the Conservatives have nothing to lose in Quebec by going on the attack, because for the second time now a pollster pegs their support in the SINGLE DIGITS. This is the first post-convention poll, which brings some curiousity, given the counter balance of Ruby Dhalla last week. What was supposed to be a good week for the Liberals turned into anything but, so one wondered if any bounce would be blunted. The conclusion from the Strategic Counsel poll, the Liberals are up, Conservatives down, a 2% gap a month ago is now 5%, in line with other recent findings. No real evidence of a bounce, but then again, no real fallout from last week, so a good result for the Liberals:
Libs 35% (34%)
Cons 30% (32%)
NDP 16% (15%)
We are starting to see more and more polls that give the Liberals an edge outside of margin of error. It has now been two months since any pollster has given the Conservatives a lead.
The Quebec numbers provide more confirmation of recent trends. Liberals way up, Conservatives sitting at absolutely abysmal totals:
Bloc 39% (41%)
Libs 37% (29%)
Cons 9% (15%)
NDP 9% (9%)
Whenever you think the Conservatives have hit a new bottom in Quebec, they fall further, to the point now where shutout is a possibility. Averaging the latest result from each pollster, the Conservatives sit at 12%. While the Liberals are drawing some support from the Bloc, primarily they are completely replacing the Conservatives as the only federalist option.
In Ontario, the Liberals maintain a big lead:
Libs 42% (45%)
Cons 32% (32%)
Once again the national numbers tend to understate the problems for the Conservatives, because some quick math of the provincial numbers equates to a healthy minority for the Liberals.
Conclusion, I'm not sure what's better news, the polls or these limp attack ads from the Conservative braintrust. The ads reek of fear, they don't really say anything substantive, just low brow attempts to discredit.
Message to the Liberal fundraising team- don't bother blowing any money responding to the ads, because these duds are laughable, or "lame" as Conservative supporters seem to acknowledge. Next.