Saturday, May 02, 2009

New Polls

Two new polls, with quite similar results. Both the NANOS poll and the Ipsos poll have the Liberals at 36%, Conservatives 33%. Of note, with the new Ipsos result, there is now no current poll which puts the Conservatives ahead of the Liberals.

The NANOS results are identical to their previous poll nationally. However, the internals would seem to confirm a Liberal uptick in Quebec, with the party in a statistical tie with the Bloc:
Bloc 37%
Libs 36%
Cons 11%
NDP 11%

Another high score for the Liberals in Quebec, which adds some weight to the earlier CROP this week. Also, further confirmation that the Conservatives are at rock bottom in Quebec, neck in neck with the NDP.

NANOS shows a tightening race in Ontario, although the Liberal number is quite stable and strong:
Libs 43%
Cons 39%
NDP 11%
Greens 8%

The Conservatives are up, the Liberals unchanged and the NDP falling further. The overall NDP vote is up in this poll, as they appear to have made mild gains elsewhere, but this Ontario number is quite low.

In terms of the leadership numbers, Harper leads Ignatieff on the index of various perceptions. Critics are pointing to the 27 point gap as bad news for the Liberals, but that is really a laughable frame, which denotes NO understanding of the sitting PM dynamic. Actually, Ignatieff scores quite well in a realistic sense. In addition, the overall "best PM" measure shows a very tight score, with Harper at 32%, Ignatieff 27%, Layton 13%. From a Liberal perspective, I would be quite pleased that Ignatieff is within range of Harper. For an opposition leader, one is looking for numbers that put you in the "ballpark", given these results and other recent findings, I would classify Ignatieff's position as positive.

The last Ipsos poll had the Conservatives at 37%, Liberals 33%, NDP 12%, Greens 8%. The new poll gives a sizeable 7% swing, putting Ipsos more in line with other pollsters. Ipsos shows a big swing in the Quebec. Their previous result had the Bloc at 41%, Libs 27%, Cons 16%, NDP 12%. We now see a statistical tie, which is becoming a recurring theme, more proof that Duceppe's new "perspective" isn't a coincidence:
Bloc 34%
Libs 32%
Cons 14%

In Ontario, Ipsos shows the Liberals widening their lead over the Conservatives from 5% to 10%. I can't find the numbers online, but it's a sizeable gap.

Ipsos also gives us leadership numbers, with Harper ahead on vision, trust and economic management. Again, I can't recall any opposition leader ahead of a sitting PM(pre-writ) on these type of measures, it's almost counter-intuitive to expect anything else.

While most of the polls show a tight race, just outside or within the MOE, it's interesting that all tip to the Liberal side. Also, both polls don't really capture the convention impact. While a "bounce" is debatable, it's hard to see how this gathering hurts the Liberals or Ignatieff moving forward.


Greg said...

What I find more interesting than anything is the fact that no one can crack 40% nationally. No matter who is running, 38% seems to be a ceiling.

Constant Vigilance said...

I am optimistic that we will see that barrier broken if the Liberals can continue their progress in Quebec. That and people in the West, outside of the Konservative Kool-aid ridings, begin to align themselves with the apparent inners.

Steve V said...

If you do the math, a majority looks virtually impossible. Unless the Bloc falls off the map, it's hard to even entertain. For the Liberals, the only way there numbers move from here is if they make gains in the "west".

burlivespipe said...

Everyone, especially the media, seems to frame this 'upticks' with the understanding that Ignatieff is going to take a hit when the ads come. No doubt, if he doesn't receive a 4-6% boost after this convention I'm close to writing off my fellow Canadians.
What the naysayers also discount is that the Liberals will be in a much better position to begin framing the conversation, while also upping the ammo when it comes to framing Harper the hypocrite. If his personal numbers reflect positive scores, its going to take a lot of media distortion to keep them there once WK gets finished...