Monday, May 25, 2009

Quebecers Seem To Like "Parisian" French

Pretty remarkable when you think about it, we now have both big Quebec pollsters not only showing a Liberal resurgence, but a lead over the BQ. The last CROP poll, with a large sample, gave the Liberals a 37%-31% lead over the Bloc, and now Leger nearly replicates those results, further cementing the trend. Leger:
Libs 37%
BQ 33%
NDP 14%
Cons 13%
Greens 3%

The last Leger poll in March gave the Bloc a 9% lead over the Liberals, so this new result represents a significant swing. This type of swing also speaks to soft support, but the important thing for the Liberals, people are clearly giving the party another look. What's also encouraging, the Liberals score 32% with francophones, while the Bloc receives 40%.

As for the Conservatives, while Stephen Harper pledged last week to "not give up on Quebec", it would appear that proclamation is irrelevant, because Quebecers have already given up on him. It would appear Quebecers don't have a problem with "Parisian" French, but do with right wing, nasty partisans.

UPDATE


Note to self, read Liblogs prior to posting

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

This clearly shows the attack ads aren't workin in Quebec. They haven't moved numbers, and they've already been running for a couple weeks. It's the same reason Budweiser pulls their Super Bowl ads off the air if their beer sales don't improve by 25% the day after the game.

Steve V said...

This poll only captures the first few days of the ads running.

What's interesting, every pollster now has the Libs with at least 35% support and the Cons hovering below and above 10%.

Scott Tribe said...

And/or read Progressive Bloggers too ;)

Don't Tase Me, Bro! said...

It's looking like a Liberal government won with Iggy at the helm is going to have the strongest representation from the Maritimes (because of the EI reforms), Quebec due to these latest numbers, and Ontario.

Now, Ontario is pretty receptive to the EI reform proposals, but I get the feeling Iggy needs to come out with something to woo the province with the most seats in order to seal the deal. Just haven't figured out what that is yet.

Loraine Lamontagne said...

To follow-up on Don't Tease Me Bro, what is needed in Ontario, I believe, are very solid, well-known star candidates. Best prescription to fight personal attacks against the leader is to present a solid team. Many Canadians would be happy to see the return of an effective cabinet as opposed to Harper's more 'dictatorial' ways.

Steve V said...

Loraine

Everyone loves a winner, and this is another example of why polls matter. I predict a slew of impressive candidates come forward.

Miles Lunn said...

Everyone loves a winner, and this is another example of why polls matter. I predict a slew of impressive candidates come forwardThis could help, however I think they would get more star candidates if they were in majority territory. The problem with the current numbers is it would only mean another minority government and minority governments are quite unstable, whereas at least with a majority you are guaranteed four years in office. Still we should get some high profile local candidates which can actually be more effective than some high profile national one. Besides as long as the right is united and the Bloc Quebecois continues to exist, I see a majority government as being unrealistic for either party.