NDP 17% here or 18% here
Greens 9% here or, you guessed it 7% here
The Liberals occupy a distant fourth with francophones, a full 5% behind the NDP. In the Quebec region, the Liberal numbers have reached a new low at 10%. However, if you look at the regional breakdowns, the Liberals are still in position to maintain their seat totals, still the possibility for pickups.
Both the Bloc and Conservatives are down 2 points since the last survey, the Liberals unmoved, the NDP up 3 or 4 depending on the source (strange that). As James notes, the erosion of the Bloc and Cons seems to benefit the NDP, but unlike him, I think Liberals should take little comfort in that dynamic. What that situation really tells us, voters are bypassing the Liberals as a second choice, a viable alternative. I would also argue that this dynamic might be the reason why Conservative numbers remain high, as voters don't see much choice, apart from the unproven NDP. That said, the Conservatives are clearly in position to pickup seats.
The NDP has ever right to be gleeful at these numbers, if they were to hold, then the Quebec caucus would surely grow, a beach head established, piercing through the most important hurdle- the perception of viability. The only caution, these numbers are softer than the Maple Leafs defence, a long way to go before they translate to the voter booth.
From the Liberal perspective, I would take these findings as opportunity. The Bloc are clearly on the wane, the appetite for seperation at a very low ebb. The Conservatives have established a base of support, but I suspect their policies still keep people at arms length. There is clearly a void here, and rather than the NDP winning "hearts and minds", I see the surge as more voter "fishing" than fundamental breakthrough. Whether that flirtation translates to concrete results is still largely a function of the Liberal reaction.
The Liberals desperately need to update their language in the province, present a progressive policy vision that appeals to mainstream Quebec, and above all, make Dion relevant to the discussion (Charest's astounding turn around does offer some hope, both are known quantities). Right now, it would appear as though voters, outside of the last bastions, don't even consider the Liberals, a distasteful afterthought. If the Liberals do take a pass on a spring election (the horror!), then I expect Dion to live in Quebec for the entire summer, all energy focused on this albatross, some innovative ideas, confronting his image in a forceful and focused way (unlike the quick hits, here and there, with no sense of gameplan, that we have seen to date), anything less than urgency denotes delusion.