Cons 35% (33%)
Libs 33% (36%)
NDP 14% (13%)
Ipsos shows a swing in Ontario, which speaks to a pretty self evident volatility:
Cons 39% (34%)
Libs 37% (44%)
No NDP total released yet, but one assumes a slight uptick from the last result of 12%.
In Quebec, more of the same:
Libs 36% (32%)
Bloc 36% 34%)
Cons 14% (14%)
British Columbia, not much change from the last poll:
39 per cent support in British Columbia, while the Liberals garnered 27 per cent and the New Democrats 24 per cent.
In a testament to how national numbers can be somewhat misleading, a point I have made often, the pollster still sees a Liberal victory:
The seat distribution in Canada means that although the Conservatives and Liberals appear to be in a close contest, the Liberal vote is "more efficient" and would likely lead to a victory if an election was held today, Bricker said.
The change in this poll is entirely a Ontario consideration. Bricker mentions the economy, possibly stabilizing, which is helping the Conservatives. That is a consideration, as are the attack ads. However, I see the Dhalla controversy as particularly relevant, the story received massive coverage, particular in Ontario, for a weak, the optics were quite poor and it could have trimmed Liberal support. That could part of the equation here, or just natural volatility in the numbers. If one is inclined to believe this is evidence of attack ads working, then you would expect to see movement throughout the country, not just in one province. The fact this is Ontario specific leads me to discard that causal relationship.
Ultimately, it might just be over analyzing for explanation, when really the Ontario numbers are doing what they always do, move around with regularity.