The Bloc was well on its way to irrelevance and political oblivion in 2003. Its raison d'etre had faded over the last decade or so and Quebecers were pretty much ready to consign the Bloc to history.
Then the Sponsorship Scandal broke and an infuriated Quebec electorate flooded back to the Bloc to punish the Liberals because at the time voting Conservative was not an option.
Quebecers looked like they would turn away from the Bloc towards the Conservatives in 2008 but then Stephen Harper alientated the Quebec electorate again, giving the Bloc yet more life.
Now the trend towards irrelevance for the Bloc has continued and the Liberals are the main beneficiary of that because of the Conservatives lack of popularity in Quebec and the high regard Quebecers hold for Michael Ignatieff.
The ficklness of Quebec voters is infamous so Liberals should not take anything for granted but my guess is if they can run a good campaign in Quebec during the next go round they can win as many seats in that province as Chretien did in 2000, perhaps more.
As you say, the campaign will be the key. Where there is reason for optimism, Quebecers seem prepared to at least give Ignatieff an audience. Duceppe is trying to conjure up the federalist boogeyman again, because he needs an enemy to survive. The fact this letter is so over the top actually looks like desperation, rather than a rational rebuke. Whatever, going so hard in this way is more telling than the polls.
3 comments:
The Bloc was well on its way to irrelevance and political oblivion in 2003. Its raison d'etre had faded over the last decade or so and Quebecers were pretty much ready to consign the Bloc to history.
Then the Sponsorship Scandal broke and an infuriated Quebec electorate flooded back to the Bloc to punish the Liberals because at the time voting Conservative was not an option.
Quebecers looked like they would turn away from the Bloc towards the Conservatives in 2008 but then Stephen Harper alientated the Quebec electorate again, giving the Bloc yet more life.
Now the trend towards irrelevance for the Bloc has continued and the Liberals are the main beneficiary of that because of the Conservatives lack of popularity in Quebec and the high regard Quebecers hold for Michael Ignatieff.
The ficklness of Quebec voters is infamous so Liberals should not take anything for granted but my guess is if they can run a good campaign in Quebec during the next go round they can win as many seats in that province as Chretien did in 2000, perhaps more.
"Liberals should not take anything for granted"
As you say, the campaign will be the key. Where there is reason for optimism, Quebecers seem prepared to at least give Ignatieff an audience. Duceppe is trying to conjure up the federalist boogeyman again, because he needs an enemy to survive. The fact this letter is so over the top actually looks like desperation, rather than a rational rebuke. Whatever, going so hard in this way is more telling than the polls.
Frankly, I don't care which party does it. The fewer BQ seats in the House the better.
I'll congratulate any MP stealing a seat from them. Hence my distaste for the recent coalition, a mistake the Libs must never make again.
Post a Comment